前言
8 Security Token Market Trends to Watch Out for in 2019
作者：Kadeem Clarke
前言
八維研究院原創，轉載請註明出處
前言
As a blockchain-focused venture capital fund, 8 Decimal Capital is focused on assisting in the mass adoption of blockchain technology. We believe that this can be done by investing in the future, not only what’s popular. This is why we are consistently conducting thorough research, due diligence, and speaking to industry leaders. As of recent, our research has been primarily geared towards the security token space.
作為專注於區塊鏈領域的投資機構，八維資本致力於推動區塊鏈技術的大規模落地應用。我們希望通過投資創造未來，而不是追逐當下最流行的概念。這是我們持續開展深度研究、盡職調查以及與行業領軍人物交流對話的原因。近期，security token領域是我們聚焦的重要領域。
Based on our research, here are 8 security token market trends to look out for in 2019:
經過研究，以下是對於2019年Security Token市場八大趨勢的判斷：
Note: This is merely my opinion and I expect many readers to have differing viewpoints.
注：這僅是個人觀點，期待與更多不同的觀點交流對話。
1.Exchanges won't be successful in 2019
1.交易所在2019年並不會是最成功的領域
As the security token market gains popularity among the blockchain community, many people are focused on the exchanges as the gateway to liquidity. However, I believe that the market is too nascent for exchanges to bring any value to the tokens that are being listed on them. With that being said, I still believe that major traditional exchanges, such as the Nasdaq, will develop their own solutions to facilitate the trade of security tokens in 2019.
隨著security token市場在獲得越來越大的關注，許多人都聚焦於“交易所”——這個有望帶來流動性的關卡。然而，我覺得整個市場還過於早期，交易所為上市的通證帶來增值的潛力還很有限。儘管如此，我依舊相信，主流的傳統交易所，比如納斯達克，會在2019年開發出他們自己的可用於security token交易的解決方案。
As an investor in the space, I have spoken to dozens of projects launching an exchange for security tokens and I ask them the same question, How will you create liquidity for the tokens listed on your platform?” Oftentimes, they answer this question by mentioning the market makers they will partner with and their plans to attract users to their platform. In my opinion, this method won’t produce the results that these exchanges anticipate. Market makers can create liquidity for those exiting a position, but won’t be able to sell the tokens for a profit if there isn’t a market of buyers.
作為這個領域的投資者，我們和很多專門為security token搭建交易所的項目溝通過，我問了他們同一個問題，“你準備如何為在你的平台上的通證提供流動性？”，通常來說，他們會提及正在合作的造市商（注：造市商market maker是為證券交易所指定的買賣中間商，主要業務是為買方及賣方進行報價、並且為雙方尋找好的價格撮合交易，本身則從買賣差價中獲利），以及他們吸引投資者的策略和計劃。然而我覺得這些方法可能都不會奏效。造市商可以為那些已經有了投資者的標的提供流動性，但是不太可能在一個本沒有買家的市場賣出通證。
In my opinion, exchanges don’t create liquidity. Exchanges are a way of managing an already liquid market and facilitating the trading of liquid assets. Rather, broker-dealers will be essential in the security token market in 2019 as security tokens will initially be used to only digitize the fundraising process, not create liquidity.
我們認為，交易所不會內生的創造流動性。交易所是一種為已經存在流動性的市場做管理，並且促成流動性資產交易的平台。但是，Broker-dealers（經紀商和做市商）將會成為證券型通證市場的關鍵組成部分，因為security token會首先被用於將融資流程數字化，並不是創造流動性。 （注：經紀商和做市商，Broker經紀商，它是通過為客戶提供經紀服務來賺取交易佣金的方式獲利的，不擁有所買賣資產的所有權；而Dealer做市商，它的獲利方式是用自有資金來買入證券，然後再以更高的價格賣給投資者，來賺取買賣價差。它會參與到整個交易過程中，是完全擁有所買賣的財產的所有權的）
2.More security tokens will appear, but the quality of some tokens will resemble the bad(💩) coins of 2017
2.更多的ST將會誕生，但質量良莠不齊，其中一些的質量將和2017年出現的垃圾幣差不多
Many businesses, both traditional and blockchain, are becoming curious about security tokens and how it can benefit their company. In 2019, people will become more knowledgeable about the security token space. As more tokenization platforms appear globally, the Security Token Offering process will become easier and relatively cheaper. Additionally, institutional players will become comfortable with security tokens as more custodians and other infrastructure players provide solutions for security tokens. This combination will result in businesses taking action and launching their own security token, rather than just curiously exploring the idea.
很多商家，包括來自傳統行業和區塊鏈產業的，對security token有很強的好奇心，想知道該怎麼通過這個新事物造福自己的公司。 2019年，人們對security token的了解會更加客觀深入。當越來越多的發行平台在全世界湧現，security token發行流程將變的更便捷和便宜。同時，當更多例如託管機構這樣的金融基礎設施搭建的更齊全的時候，機構投資者也會更願意參與。這兩者的結合將讓人們不再處於討論概念的階段，而是真的採取商業行動。
Along with traditional businesses, blockchain projects without revenue are also showing interest in the security token market. Investors should beware of risky security tokens, especially those backed by projects without assets or revenue. Security tokens and regulation don’t eliminate the risks of ICO businesses, they only decrease the risk.
除了傳統行業，沒有實現盈利的區塊鏈項目也對Security token市場產生了興趣。投資者應該對這個新金融產品的風險有更客觀的認知，尤其是那些沒有資產和盈利作為支撐的項目。 Security token和監管並沒有消滅愛西歐的風險，只是降低了而已。
3. Security tokens will no longer be considered "the new 1CO", a new class of security token will be created to replace 1CO
3.security token不再被視作“新的愛西歐”，而會成為替代愛西歐的新資產類別
Security tokens are supposed to be digital assets (emphasis on the word assets). In my opinion, a business without any assets or revenue should not consider launching a security token, yet.
Security tokens被視作數字資產（強調資產）。我認為，截至目前為止，一個沒有資產或利潤的商業還不適宜發行Security tokens。
Using a utility token as an investment vehicle doesn’t make any sense to me, but I do believe that startups should be able to crowdfund their companies. With the pending downfall of the utility token investment market, ICO companies will have to find a new way to raise money.
將一個效用型通證（utility token）作為投資工具，我覺得很不合理。但我相信初創企業應該可以為公司做股權眾籌。當效用型通證市場下行時，之前準備做愛西歐的公司需要尋求一個新的融資路徑。
In 2019, I’m looking forward to seeing a new class of security tokens that will allow new blockchain businesses to access capital from global investors while also protecting investors from fraudulent and worthless projects. This would have to result from the creation of information platforms, new protocols, and new regulations. As I brainstorm this idea more, I will be able to create a more concrete vision of this new class of security token.
2019年，我期待看到一個新的Security token融資模式，允許新創的區塊鏈公司從全球投資者那裡融資，同時保護投資者不受詐騙等行為的傷害。要實現這一點，我們需要信息披露平台，新的合約，和新的監管。當我們將這些因素納入考慮，我們會開發出一個更具象的新的資產類別。
4. More advanced security token protocols will emerge, catalyzing the creation of liquidity in the security token market
4. 更多先進的security token合約將會誕生，為security token市場鞏固流動性
One major issue with the current security token market is the lack of advanced financial instruments. At the moment, I have only seen security tokens that represent equity in a business. This has been an easy way to start, but won’t be enough to lead to the mass adoption of security tokens. As the next generation of security token protocols emerges, tokens will be able to handle bonds and other derivatives.
最近security token市場面臨的一個主要問題就是缺乏先進的金融工具。當下，大部分security token只能代表類股權。這是一個好的開始，但對於大規模推廣還遠遠不夠。隨著下一代security token合約的成長，我們將可以處理債券和其他衍生產品。
Currently, there is a lack of debt protocols in the security token market, but I anticipate many to pop up in 2019. Debt protocols can decrease the systematic risk associated with most security tokens and provide investors with immediate cash flow. Additionally, debt holders have first priority in the case of a failing business. 8 Decimal is currently working with technology partners to release our own debt protocol in 2019 that will be used on our soon-to-be-announced tokenization platform.
儘管債權型合約（Debt Protocols）當下仍很匱乏，但我預計2019年將會有很多債權型合約湧現。債權型合約可以降低風險，為投資者提供直接的現金流。同時，債權人還能在破產時得到優先的償付。八維資本正在和技術夥伴共同開發債權型合約，2019年，我們的通證化平台和合約將很快面世。
5. The global economy will have an impact on the growth of the security token market
5.全球經濟將對security token市場的成長起到重大影響
As a venture capitalist, timing must be considered when making any investment. For the security token market, the timing could have a negative impact on the growth of the market. Globally, capital markets are approaching a peak in the cycle. Recent volatility in the US markets and a 10-year bull market has led many to believe that a downturn will happen in the next 6 months. Considering this, there are two schools of thought. Some believe that the security token market will be inversely correlated to the traditional markets, while others believe that there will be a direct correlation.
作為風險投資機構，時機對於投資來說是非常關鍵的。對於security token市場來說，當下，對於security token市場的壯大可能不是最好的時機。放眼全球，資本市場正在觸達週期的底部。最近美國市場的脆弱性和波動性，加上已經持續10年的牛市，讓很多人相信未來6個月內整個市場就會發生下跌。對這一點，有兩種不同的觀點。一種相信security token市場將和傳統市場行情負相關，另一種相信他們是直接正相關的。
I believe that there will be a direct correlation. In times of economic downturn, asset values don’t experience much growth due to the lack of capital in the market and a lack of expected short-term economic growth. The security token market doesn’t remediate either of these issues, so shouldn’t it also experience a decrease in asset values? On the other hand, investors typically flee to fixed income during an economic downturn because of the constant coupon payments. This is why I stress the importance of security tokens that represent debt. Debt tokens will be able to attract institutional investors, even during a time of economic downturn.
我認為，security token市場和全球資本市場行情是正相關的。在經濟下行週期時，由於市場資金的匱乏以及對短期內經濟增長的悲觀預期，資產價值不會有太多增長。 security token無法解決上述資金和預期兩個問題，所以是否也會面臨資產估值下跌的情形呢？另一方面，投資者通常會在經濟下行期選擇固定收益類產品，以獲得穩定的利息。這是我為什麼強調代表債權類的security token的重要性。債權型通證將有望吸引機構投資者，尤其是經濟下行週期。
6. Securities regulation will begin catching up in 2019
6. 2019年，證券監管政策將加快步伐跟上節奏
As we’ve seen in 2018, some small countries, such as Malta, Gibraltar, and Singapore, around the world will continue creating security token friendly legislation in 2019. Due to the size of their governments, these countries are able to adapt at a quicker pace than larger countries, allowing them to act as nimbly as a startup.
正如我們在2018年所見的，很多小國家，比如馬耳他，直布羅陀和新加坡，將在2019年繼續對security token表示友好。由於政府規模較小，這些國家能夠比大國更靈活快速的應對，就像初創小公司的速度比大公司快一樣。
Larger countries, with more decision-makers and gate-keepers, will take more time to create regulations specifically for security tokens. Unlike ICOs, regulators around the world are showing positive sentiment towards the STO market, even the SEC. I believe that global regulation will come quickly after the SEC creates regulations which are specific for digital assets.
大國，擁有更冗長的決策流程和更多既有利益的看門人，要想讓這些大國為security token單獨立法需要花費一點時間。和愛西歐不同，世界上大部分監管者對security token市場都抱著友好的態度，包括美國SEC。我相信當SEC制定出對於數字資產的相關監管準則後，全球監管將會很快更新。
7. Information plarforms will become more important
7. 信息披露平台將變的很重要
In order for large institutional players to enter the secondary security token market, investors must be provided with reliable and trustworthy information. I believe that platforms, similar to the Bloomberg Terminal, will appear in 2019. However, these platforms won’t use traditional methods to analyze businesses.
為了讓大型機構投資者進入security token的二級市場，投資者必須要提供可信的信息。我相信此類平台，類似彭博終端（Bloomberg Terminal），將會在2019年出現。然而，這些平台不會使用傳統手段去分析商業。
A combination of blockchain and other advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, will be used to increase the efficiency and reliability of reporting information about and rating the underlying assets. Since we started looking at the security token market, 8 Decimal has been on the search for an information platform that could service the market in this capacity.
一種結合了區塊鍊和其他先進科技，比如人工智能在內的技術手段，將被用於這個信息平台，讓信息的披露和底層資產的評估變的更加高效和可信。八維資本正在搜尋擁有此類能力的信息（披露）平台和信息終端。
8. Higher quality talent will enter the space
8.更優質的人才將進入市場
Working in the blockchain industry requires you to be a jack-of-all-trades which is why the blockchain industry is full of diverse talent from a wide range of ages, industries, and regions. Even though this is what makes the industry so great, it is also something holding the industry back. The top tech talent is still working at large companies in the traditional tech space. The top finance talent is still working at traditional banks and financial institutions. That leaves the security token space with a smaller pool of top talent.
結論
I believe the current talent in the security token space is highly skilled and intelligent, but the experts of the tech and finance industries could help shape a stronger industry. As the security token market gains more traction in 2019, experts from traditional industries will enter the security token industry for new opportunities.
結論
Conclusion
結論
All in all, 8 Decimal is excited to see how the security token market develops in 2019. In addition to investing in security token projects, we intend to participate in the market too. 8 Decimal, along with our technology partners, is developing an end-to-end platform to facilitate the tokenization of real assets (including equity, debt, and real estate). While this platform is being developed, we are advising a multitude of traditional and blockchain businesses that want to go through the process of launching their own security token. If you or your business has questions about launching a security token, reach out to me via Wechat，LinkedIn or email us at: kadeem@8dcapital.com or contact@8dcapital.com
總而言之，八維資本期待在2019年看到security token市場的蓬勃發展。除了投資於這個領域，我們也有意向投身於搭建這個初生的市場。八維資本正在和我們的技術夥伴共同開發一個可以將資產（包括股權、債權和房產）通證化的平台。儘管平台仍在開發進展中，我們正在為一系列傳統產業的公司提供諮詢和通證設計服務。如果你對此感興趣，歡迎微信留言與我們聯繫。
