Produced | Odaily

Editor | Hao Fangzhou

Produced | Odaily

The big test of Filecoin mining machine manufacturers has been postponed again. This means that the data transparency of the FIL mining industry has been delayed.

In the current industry environment that is not yet transparent, there are a lot of manufacturers' machine parameter propaganda with various moisture, which is a difficulty before new players and new capital enter the field.

On July 22, Odaily held the "Interstellar Rise - IPFS Technology and Distributed Storage Ecological Cloud Summit" (Click to look back), and invited KeyPool co-founder Jia Xudong, Space-Time Cloud Technology Chairman Lai Chuhang, Pomegranate Mining Pool technical director Li Bai, and 1475 co-founder Andy, four hard-core technology providers of the Filecoin mining track to accept Odaily’s invitation to cooperate with Odaily Senior reporter Huang Xuejiao had a roundtable discussion on the theme of "Which Filecoin Mining is Strong: Technical Strength and Mining Efficiency".

If you are a small retailer and capital who has not yet participated in the FIL mining ecology, the discussion here may allow you to further avoid the "deep water pit" in the FIL mining market.

The following is the full text of the roundtable dialogue edited by Odaily:

Huang Xuejiao: First, let the guests briefly introduce our company's current business, or some important progress.

Lai Chuhang: Space-Time Cloud Technology was originally a community, and now its main business is mining machines and computing power platform FILPooL mining pool. Space-Time Cloud has incubated several brands, including the Chinese community, the spider mining machine, and the Filecoin mining pool, which mainly sells computing power. At present, we have established a global foundation of IPFS in Singapore. In the next step, we may consider investing in some IPFS ecological applications.

Li Bai: Pomegranate Mining Pool mainly focuses on digging innovative projects with technical potential, and provides a complete set of solutions around these projects, including mining, mining machines, mining pools, browsers, wallets, etc. In March of this year, I came into contact with the Filecoin field. Our side is more focused on overall solutions, and most of the customers we face are medium-sized and large-scale customers. We are more engaged in the business of empowering other institutions, to the B direction.

Andy: 1475 was established in 2018 and has focused on Filecoin from beginning to end. We've been doing R&D and we got capital investment this year. We are constantly optimizing the underlying algorithm architecture and mining system, and mining machines are one of our most important products.

Jia Xudong: KeyPool is the core mining pool business brand of Keystore Group. Founded in 2018, Keystore Group is positioned as an enterprise-level encrypted asset service provider, mainly providing institutional users with encrypted asset safe storage, corporate online banking and node services (Staking). In January this year, it received strategic investment from Jianyuan Fund and Fenbushi Capital under Tunnel, and was supported by State-owned Assets Fund and top encryption funds.

We have been paying attention to the FIlecoin project and are very optimistic about the development prospects of distributed storage technology. Combined with the company's overall strategic plan, we have launched the Filecoin mining business, which is the KeyPool mining pool. The business also extends from private key storage to data storage.

Huang Xuejiao: It’s really rare. This round table has gathered so many powerful players. Therefore, everyone will also be curious about the sales strategies and user groups of the manufacturers present, including what kind of perception our users have about Filecoin. The unit price of each customer is about what level?

Li Bai: I often compare ourselves to a pig farmer. Pomegranate Pool knows how to raise pigs and knows how to raise them, but ordinary users don’t need to buy a whole pig, they only need to buy a piece of pork to cook. And if you are a big B who really wants to buy a whole pig, you can use our pig raising technology to raise good pigs and then sell them in pieces. This is the basic business model of Pomegranate.

Andy: In terms of business form, 1475 is relatively more open. At present, the unit price of our lowest products is more than 200,000 yuan, basically excluding some small Cs.

In addition to mining machines, we also make a complete set of solutions to some B-sides, let them build their own mines, and then connect to the entire network through our mining pool business. For some technology developers or technology enthusiasts, we will do some incubation in the form of ecological funds.

Jia Xudong: KeyPool currently mainly focuses on the B-side, and we have not done much promotion on the C-side. The main reason is that we have been providing B-side asset security services.

When KeyPool decided to do mining, it immediately shared this idea with customers of Keystore’s hosting and online banking services. Most of them are institutions and Bitcoin miners. There are many people and strength. We want to participate with our old users Come in. The current plan is 1999/T, mining for three years and filling in 6 months, which is very friendly to miners.

Lai Chuhang: In terms of sales strategy, the main sales strategy of Space-Time Cloud is to B-end, which provides support for some manufacturers who have collected a lot of funds but have not so good technology. Our pricing strategy will be biased towards a low-to-medium price. We hope to benefit investment customers and let everyone grab the top mine as much as possible.

In terms of users' perception of Filecoin, the industry of IPFS has gone from irrational investment to rational investment. The current proportion of Filecoin's customer base has changed.Investors are moving from irrationality to rationality. In the early days, IPFS was not optimistic, and there were phenomena such as fund failure. However, as the Filecoin market heats up, mining circles and currency circles realize the feasibility of the Filecoin project, and capital and rational investors have slowly begun to pay attention to this project. Current user risk awareness is increasing, but the value of early participants cannot be denied.

Huang Xuejiao: The most reliable indicator for selecting mining machines or cloud computing power in the current market is cost-effectiveness, that is, a value obtained by dividing the packaging speed by the selling price. It represents how many packages can be obtained per ten thousand yuan investment ability. But some people think that this indicator is not accurate enough. What do you guys think of the above price/performance indicator? Is there a better indicator to recommend to investors?

Andy: The mining logic of IPFS is that according to the number of hard disk mining in the entire network, the effective computing power is the amount of data verified by the network after the mining machine is packaged. Before the entire hard disk is fully encapsulated, the effective computing power is determined by the encapsulation speed.

But just now the host also mentioned that as the packaging speed is getting faster and faster, the hard disk packaging can be completed in one year or even six months now. What to do when the hard drive is full? Then we will face the problem of expansion.

If you want to add a hard disk after buying the mining machine, the cost should be controlled below 30,000 yuan. After the package is full, expansion is very cheap.

The core cost lies in the entire calculation process. This indicator is still meaningful to refer to, but from a complete point of view, you also need to consider the cost of expanding the equipment if everyone packs it up according to one year.. There may be some people who choose to mine for the first time, and some people choose three to six years for the long-term layout.

Li Bai: I personally feel that although it cannot fully reflect the quality of the whole package, it is a very critical indicator.

This indicator can basically reflect the strength of the mining machine, but it is lacking in two aspects: one is the cost of subsequent equipment expansion, and the other is the relationship between packaging speed and obtaining tokens. Miners should consider hardware solutions, software optimization and other aspects in actual mining. Impact.

Jia Xudong: There is no doubt that this indicator is currently the most reliable. But here to remind the miners and investors. Be sure to ask the miner clearly what is the price benchmark for calculating this indicator. For miners, this indicator should be calculated according to the price at hand.

Lai ChuhangIn general,

In general,ROI depends on three aspects, the capability of the supply chain, the improvement of algorithm technology and long-term stability.

In addition, Filecoin has a mortgage mechanism, especially 80% of the Filecoin in the head mining mine is kept in it. If you do not have good technical application capabilities, 80%-90% of your frozen coins will be lost during the process, and the overall All in all, the overall return is very low. That is to say, when choosing a manufacturer for cooperation, you also need to consider his solution and whether he has long-term operation and maintenance capabilities.

Huang Xuejiao: The following is the issue of currency price that investors are most concerned about. How will the price of FIL behave? I really want to hear how the bosses judge the long-term and short-term performance of the currency price? For example, from one month to half a year, where will its price range be?

Jia Xudong: Regarding this issue, I would like to share with you from the perspective of calculating the payback period. Because a core element in the payback cycle is the currency price.

Veteran miners know that whether it is Bitcoin mining or Filecoin mining, they are very particular about the return cycle. For Filecoin mining, there are two core factors that affect the payback cycle of miners: first, how much miners get from miners (naturally, mining pools); second, what is the currency price.

The relatively simple prediction logic for output is: first, estimate the effective computing power of the entire network. The output of the mining machine directly affects the effective computing power of the entire network, and the core component graphics card directly affects the output of the mining machine, but the production capacity and shipment of the graphics card are not enough, because not only the graphics card is needed for Filecoin mining, but also the AI Businesses are also buying in bulk. So it is difficult to get exact data.Based on our understanding of the supply chain, we currently estimate that the effective computing power of the entire network may be around 2000P in the first year.

The next step is to calculate the output per T. In the first year, 150 million Fil tokens were dug up, an average of 410,000 per day, and the effective computing power of 2000P was used to participate in the distribution.The daily currency production per T effective computing power is about 0.205 FIL, the estimation is very simple, so the impact of burst rate is not considered here.

With the output, the next step is the currency price.

We calculate the payback period, and the reference currency price given to all investors is between 50-70 RMB.Our logic is also very simple. We think that it is not a big problem for such a project to squeeze into the top 15. According to this ranking, the circulating market value is calculated at about 1.5 billion US dollars. Regardless of the pledge rate, the market circulation in the first year is based on 2 Calculated at about 100 million, that is, the price of Fil can only be ranked in the top 20 when the price is about 7 US dollars.

If we go further, the circulating market value will reach 2 billion U.S. dollars, which is about the top ten, and the currency price of Fil needs to remain at about 10 U.S. dollars.

at this time,Let's calculate the payback period again, 1999/T, 1999/0.2/70=142 days. Consider mining pool coins: 25%, that is, 142/0.75=189 days. This is the case without considering the pledge rate. If the pledge rate is calculated at 20%, then the payback cycle needs to be divided by 0.8, so the calculation will not be done.

This is an estimate logic given to investors by our KeyPool.

Lai Chuhang: The overall performance of FIL may soar in the early stage, and it may return to rationality in the future. It is still a process from irrationality to rationality as mentioned just now. Talk about some risks:

First, the price of FIL depends on the finalization of the entire economic model, which has not yet been fully finalized. The previously released economic model has been deleted.The new economic model has not yet been released. According to the original economic model, the proportion of miners' total circulation is extremely low, so the currency price basically depends on the thoughts and mentality of Filecoin's early investors.

Filecoin has a pre-capacity mortgage mechanism. If the early circulation is very low and the currency price is very low, it is easy to cause the miners to not be able to pay the custody fee.

In the second aspect, Filecoin also has many risks, such asTechnical risks. Once the blockchain is open source and everyone participates, there will definitely be new bugs.

third aspect,If these early investors in the secondary market unite and the circulation is in their hands, will they cut the miners' leeks?This is also a big risk.

The fourth block, Filecoin is a storage project,It is possible that the stored file data will involve national security and attract the attention of the national government, and may even resist such projects in various local governments.

Li Bai: In the short term, FIL is indeed the most popular currency in the entire market except for the mainstream currency, which is bound to promote the maintenance of its price value. In the short and medium term, FIL is still concerned and recognized by the market.

FIL's earliest circulation economic model is only determined by a few parameters in the algorithm. The entire algorithm generally does not change much. As long as you dare to change the value of the parameters in it, it will have a great impact.

Recently, we have noticed that the official economic model of the mortgage has been updated on the testnet. Everyone knows that the handling fee used in the encapsulation process and the number of your mortgage tokens are very small. In the latest version, the official increase ratio In the early stage, a lot of FIL is needed to complete the package.

The official can make a change to his economic model through only a few parameters, which will eventually affect the circulation of Filecoin tokens in the early market. The less the circulation, the price will be manipulated by a few people, and the currency price will inevitably It is a process of big winds and waves, big ups and downs.

However, judging from the current market heat, the overall impact on prices is upward.

Andy: From the price of the currency itself, the root cause of the price of the currency is buying and selling. Let’s look at buying. In fact, there are not many stock funds in the entire currency circle, but it will bring new purchase orders. People who belong to the currency circle may bring a lot of incremental transactions.

At present, the price of FIL outside the market has been raised to more than ten dollars, and the cost of the entire chip is increasing. Because of the increase in the chip, the selling will decrease. Even if the circulation is released every day in the future, most people may not sell it. Therefore, there may be negative circulation in the early stage, and the market should buy more than sell.

At the same time, the medium and long-term performance depends on the activity of the OTC transactions in the ICO market. Filecoin's economic model will also undergo considerable changes, and changes in the economic model and structure will be the biggest uncertainties in the currency price.

I don’t make a prediction on the currency price, I just think it will be high at the beginning, and then it will start to go down. I agree with Li Bai’s wordsIn the early days, the volatility will be very large.

Huang Xuejiao: The last one, let's face the historical issues of Filecoin. Some people worry that within 2-6 months of the mainnet launch, as unreliable mining machines cannot produce coins normally, it may bring some thunderstorms. Many people want to know what impact this incident will have on future mining machines and currency prices? 

Lai Chuhang: After the mainnet of Filecoin goes online, it is a high probability event that mining machine vendors run away, thunderstorms, and investors defend their rights. It is recommended that mining machine manufacturers spend part of their funds to find some suitable and reliable mining solutions when the mining algorithm is fixed as much as possible.

Li Bai: As for thunderstorms, everyone is very clear and well aware. Will such a phenomenon have a great impact on the market? As far as my personal understanding is concerned, I think this is a process of survival of the fittest. Many of them are well publicized, but in the end because they did not master the core technology or some key solutions, they were finally washed away by the market. I think it is very As a normal thing, the market should have a more rational understanding of such a phenomenon.

Andy: The money received from the mining machine in the market is more than 10 billion, but the purchase in the supply chain is less than 1 billion, so there is a very big gap in the middle. In fact, some of the money in the middle was from the marketing side, some of the money was unable to be dug out after buying equipment like Intel, and some of the money had even run away.

After the launch of the mainnet, I think this is a process of survival of the fittest. We hope to promote the industry to be more standardized in this way. Only by becoming transparent as soon as possible can a more capable team stand out. The few present here today are all technology-based companies, and they should be able to go on the track for a long time.

Jia Xudong: The launch of the mainnet will tear away the fig leaf of many manufacturers. In addition to the delivery difficulties mentioned, there are also those who boast of guaranteed currency production. The current market is indeed very chaotic. However, it is very difficult for the entire project to collapse due to the delivery problem of the manufacturer. Because not all mining machine manufacturers have delivery difficulties. Take our KeyPool as an example. Our large-scale machine purchase was carried out at the miners conference at the end of April, after the official confirmation that the SDR algorithm would remain unchanged for one year after it was launched, so as to minimize the adverse impact of algorithm changes on miners.

In the mining ecology, miners are like exchanges in the currency circle, and miners are like currency miners or leeks, always bearing the greatest risk. Miners are all real gold and silver inputs. As a miner responsible for the miners, we must try our best to avoid unnecessary losses to the miners due to these problems. 

Manufacturers who have difficulties in delivery must either buy coins and send them to users, provided that the price of the coins plummets, or they will lose more money; or simply run away. It can be seen that delivery is difficult, and it is these problematic manufacturers that are about to collapse.

After the collapse of these problem manufacturers, the nodes that still stand are the nodes that provide services for the entire Filecoin network, and these manufacturers are the effective builders of the ecology. This situation is good for manufacturers who really do things, and at the same time users can reduce the barriers to screening,The market has purified itself.

Instead, I am more worried about the stability of the project consensus mechanism and the stability of the entire network, because everyone has paid great attention and expectations to the Filecoin project. If there are serious technical problems, it may lead to a short-term collapse of the currency price.

Huang Xuejiao: Thank you very much for the wonderful sharing of the bosses. Our round table is over here. We will see you next time when the epidemic is over.