Wen Sandao

Wen Sandao

Produce Ear Finance

Bella is the leader among millions of digital currency transactions in China. When Bitcoin goes up and down, the daily fluctuation exceeds 3%. For a trader like Bella who often uses 100 times leverage, the one-day K-line chart is pregnant with a 3-fold increase, or loses everything.

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dealer psychology

In the early morning, Bella would not eat breakfast, catch the subway, and rush to work like a normal daughter. She usually wakes up at noon, the lazy big cat at home has finished her morning walk and has taken a nap in the morning, and there is a chinchilla in a cage in the study. There are five large display screens arranged in two rows above and below the desk in the small study. On the black background, the red and green K-line, VOL, MACD, BOLL and other indicators are still running at night.

Recently, the prices of Bitcoin and various digital currencies have been jumping up and down. Bella went to bed at 4 o'clock in the morning to ensure that the Americans would not make any mistakes. However, after 4 o'clock in the morning, the Chinese dealers always like to pull out a beautiful green K line. Let the Chinese leeks that get up the next day find that the market is up again, and then come to harvest in the evening.

This trick could not escape Bella, who used to trade in a digital currency exchange. A year ago, she was also a little leek. She graduated from a computer science major and could write programs. When she was in college, her annual income from speculating in U.S. stocks exceeded 10%. She was smart and independent—in the second half of 2018, when the digital currency exchange was full of fish and dragons, she was photographed. As a trader of a digital currency exchange, he listens to the real banker behind him, executes operation instructions, and uses huge funds to create strange candlestick charts.

Three months later, she stopped working and became a professional trader in digital currency trading.

After February 2019, Bitcoin ushered in the first wave of big market this year, from $3,500 to $4,000, and Bella caught it. In December 2018, she borrowed a sum of money from a friend and started with 1 BTC. It doubled 12 times in 3 months, and 1 Bitcoin became 12.

On Feb. 24, Bitcoin fell 1.7%, before plunging 5.59% the next day. Bella opened a 100-fold leverage, which is the guts of a veteran trader, and in the early hours of February 24, she found a low dead cross that showed signs of a plunge.

"On February 24th, I closed my position and escaped."

Bella, sitting in front of me, has no makeup on. She is a pretty girl with delicate features. She speaks smoothly and frankly like a Northeast person. She speaks rationally and is good at analysis. She was sitting on a large black office chair, sliding the K-lines on the various display screens on the cat fur-scattered desktop.

The top row of display screens are the disks of multiple currencies, the long-term K-line of Bitcoin, and the daily K-line chart of Bitcoin. A piece of A4 paper is hung on the screen, on which the trader's operating frequency and profit probability are written.

"Everything we do in life follows a positive regression curve. This is a problem of probability, that is, when you trade more times, it gets closer and closer to 50%." Even in the stock futures market, the trader's winning The rate is also very low.

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race against probability

By June, the price of Bitcoin had risen all the way to $13,800. In this wave of the first round of bull market since 2018, Bella won. "One to two weeks will double the total funds," Bella's happiest time. For a trader, the happiest thing is getting up in the morning and seeing the funds in the account doubled.

All she does is trend sheets. Many leeks focus on the 15-minute K-line, while Bella focuses on the 4-hour or even longer period of time. After the market is confirmed, she will use small positions of funds to test to prevent a sharp correction before the real skyrocketing. When the market really starts Increase your position.

In the first 10 days of April, Bitcoin quickly rose from $4,100 to $5,500, an increase of 32% in 10 days. Bella did not expect the market to come so fast, and she believed that there must be a wave of correction. Sure enough, in mid-to-late April, Bitcoin experienced two rounds of sharp corrections, and Bella suffered two consecutive corrections. By the end of May, the price of Bitcoin had regained its momentum, and Bella's short orders failed to turn around in time. Due to the large position and heavy leverage, Bella increased the position at the low position, but forgot to reduce the position at the high position, and lost 16 bitcoins in a short period of time, and returned millions of real gold and silver to the market within a few days.

"Any operation is not perfect." Bella also has lost time.

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Part of the investment philosophy book shared by Bella Moments

Transactions are both virtual and real. "Life is the same as trading. When you see that what is lost is real money, you will feel pain." Bella understands that the time cost of money flow is sharply condensed in the transaction, and then intuitively gives you the feeling of money. This is A sharper shock. The ups and downs of every transaction are like a hunt. You ambush, you attack, you get the prey, or you return injured and defeated. Every strike is a choice with consequences.

People who are good at mathematics can better control the probability of winning. As the number of transactions increases, the probability of winning is close to 50%. This is a random number with two choices, which means that in the futures market, you may win or lose every transaction, and you can hardly control this risk. and winning percentage.

Digital currency is traded 24 hours a day, with large fluctuations and high leverage. It is an infinitely magnified market. "There are more trading opportunities, 20 or 30 times of this cycle, lock your losses in this process, and then expand your profits." Bella exchanged the number of times for more trading opportunities, and then locked the loss of each order at 20 % or 30%, when the dice of probability stop on the "win" side, the chances of winning will expand infinitely.

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Enemies: Greed, Miscalculation, Machine Failure

Every day, the round-headed cat will lie next to the keyboard, which is Bella's most intimate company. The family members gradually understand this new human being who comes out at night, but for the post-90s Bella, she doesn't care about other people's eyes.

Many times before four o'clock in the morning, she had to stay up late to watch the market, and sometimes went to bed at eight o'clock in the morning, and still couldn't get up in the afternoon. If the market changes drastically from the early morning, the close contact with the red and green K lines all night long will make her eyes sore. When watching the tape, she plays League of Legends, her skills are average, but she is much better than the average girl, and she also follows up on dramas when she is bored.

My mother didn't know what bitcoin was, but later learned that she earned more than her peers, so she didn't say anything anymore. "I didn't tell my mother how much I earned, for fear that she would be too careless." In fact, my mother didn't know that Bella's achievements in the past six months had exceeded her lifetime income.

Digital currency was known by tens of millions of people in the last round of bull market, but among the millions of speculators in China, only 20% of them play futures contracts. These are a group of smarter people and risk surfers , those who lose are called "gamblers".

In the futures market, 97% of people lose money, and Bella became the 3%. Bella, who has already made her first pot of gold, has not changed much in her life. She only goes out three or four times a month, and spends the rest of the time in a small study with five screens. She doesn't buy luxury goods, and the biggest expense in life is eating, and occasionally buying clothes and jewelry she likes. Today, the communication on WeChat has been unimpeded, "I think socializing in offline activities is invalid socializing", Bella is very decisive.

Professional institutions divide the emotions of speculators into extreme greed, greed, panic, and extreme panic. For a person who makes a living by trading, life must be accompanied by these emotions.

When she was particularly confident about the market trend, Bella was able to fall asleep after ten o'clock in the evening, but in February and March, the fluctuations were violent and the corrections continued, and it was already difficult to sleep soundly. During this period of time, the rise and fall were extremely fierce, which made people feel a little panicked.

In the past two months, Bella, who used to be able to cope with the unilateral rise in the market, had a hard time trading. She was constantly losing money in the market that repeatedly fluctuated and corrected her control of the long-term trend. She found that she could not control the short-term fluctuations in the market, so she went to I learned from a stock trader friend in Shanghai. She has already devoted herself to it. She doesn't have to work from nine to five like ordinary office workers, and she doesn't have to squeeze the subway. She has absolute freedom of time and space. She thinks this career can be done for a lifetime. "Once you enter this state of freedom, you can never go back to the business to live the nine-to-five life." "There is no need to go back," Bella affirmed, the trader still has a long way to go, and she still has a long way to go. In learning, life has just begun.