BTC finally broke through 2w last night, and we also did a live broadcast with Babbitt at 10:30 last night, witnessing history with Super Jun and Xiaobie, and looking forward to the future by the way.
We have excerpted Tony's views during the live broadcast, hoping to help you better understand the market.
01 Did you expect the market to break 20,000 tonight?
Tony：
My most conservative psychological expectation is that the price of Bitcoin will exceed 20,000 by the end of January or February next year. Because from May to July this year, it took three months to wear out 10,000.
This time it took only about a month to break through 20,000, which is actually relatively short. But in any case, we still made a breakthrough, and a breakthrough is a good thing, so everyone can be happier.
In fact, Tony expressed his views on the next BTC trend on Monday, as shown in the figure below:
02 Why did Bitcoin break 20,000 at this time tonight?
Tony：
Judging from the price at the beginning of the year, the rise of Bitcoin is not that exaggerated. At the beginning of the year, it was about 7,000, and now it is 20,000, which is basically about three times.
If you look at the price at the beginning of last year and the high point last year, the price at the beginning of last year was about 3,000 to 4,000, and the high point last year was 13,000, which is about a four-fold increase. In fact, it has not risen to 4 times this year.
What kind of force pulls Bitcoin? In fact, since last year, the mainstream view has recognized that the price of Bitcoin has nothing to do with Chinese capital. Now we say that the pull or smash is mainly based on coinbase.
Of course, there is no need to feel strange about this. The reason is very simple. Chinese forces can no longer participate in it. It is very troublesome to enter and withdraw funds, and there is not much room for maneuvering in it.
03 From a global macro perspective, how do you think BTC will rise this year?
Tony：
The most important reason is that the US dollar is releasing water or that global central banks are releasing water.
We can see that every bear market comes because of interest rate hikes. Every bull market comes because of interest rate cuts or more exaggerated QE.
Let's look back to the bear market in 2018. It is obvious that the Fed raised interest rates in that year, and it has not raised interest rates much in 2019, so you can see that it has started to rise. Not only did they not cut interest rates this year, they began to send money crazily and pushed up the Nasdaq stock market crazily. There is really no way.
For Bitcoin, under the big macro, it is actually too late to break through the previous high. If you look at all the mainstream assets in the world, gold has already broken its previous high, the A-share CSI 300 Index has also broken its previous high, not to mention the Nasdaq, all of them have broken their previous highs. Bitcoin, the only digital currency, has not broken its previous high, which is a very strange thing in itself.
Bitcoin was the last mainstream asset to break its previous high. It was the last one to break the previous high, and it may also rush higher.
04 What is the future trend of Bitcoin?
Tony：
Breaking 20,000 this time is relatively urgent. If you look at the 5-day line or the weekly or monthly line, it is still relatively urgent. Compared with the process of breaking 10,000, basically it is just a little rest before going up. Whether it will directly reach 30,000, most people will feel that they will go up first, and then step back.
Personally, when I look at the price of Bitcoin, I pay more attention to these indicators of futures, such as whether there are more or less speculative components (and spot premiums) in futures? If the speculative component of futures is crazy, you should pay attention to the risks.
If you put it in the futures, how much you have tortured the confidence of the bulls before, you can make up for it later. This is particularly obvious two months ago. The process has actually worn away the confidence of most bulls. Will it come down again after this time? I think there is a possibility, I even think it will be soon, maybe at the end of this month, after Christmas.
My personal expectation is to reach around US$50,000 to US$70,000 next year. In fact, it is relatively conservative, because according to the trend of 17 years, it has increased by 10 times. If it is less than 50,000, I think there may be some problems in the market.
05 It has reached a record high of 20,000 US dollars, what should retail investors do?
Tony：
I would like to share with you my personal way of making money for sure, two or three times a year.
In a certain period of time, a large number of people will have a futures liquidation, and the liquidation will lead to a negative premium on Bitmex that lasts for a month. Most people's money has been laundered. Once this happens, you can just buy it.
06 What else is worth paying attention to besides Bitcoin?
Tony：
I think the U.S. stock market will end next year, and Bitcoin will skyrocket, but whether it will end with the U.S. stock market, I don’t know. Next year, some domestic assets, such as stocks and real estate in Shenzhen, will also be stable assets. Our slogan is long China, long crypto.
07 Is it a bull market now?
Tony：
Depends on what currency you have. Reappear the state of the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018 that garbage can go to the sky, and it may not happen again.
The market will get a little smarter. The same is true all over the world, the good is better and the bad is worse. Institutions are actually smarter than retail investors. They will gather together to hoard Bitcoin. If there is a better target next year, they will also gather together to hoard it until they die, and pull it to a high level. Others may simply fade away without attention.
