This article will predict what will happen in the future, and will briefly talk about what has already happened.
I know that what everyone cares about now is not the vision, mission and values of the Filecoin project at all, but how the currency price will go? How to layout? When will the mining machine & computing power be able to pay back? How high is the risk? What are the things that are so hot that they are still under the surface? What else will happen?
This article does not announce cooperation with any team, but only states all the facts that can be reached.
Contents of this article:
1. Where does Filecoin come from?
2. Which big exchange will list the spot first?
3. Filecoin price trend (spot & futures)
4. Computing power after the mainnet launch
5. Changes in the release mechanism
6. Three-party game: project party, investor, miner
7. Miners’ payback cycle
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1. Where does Filecoin come from?
Friends who can pass KYC can go to buy, and you will also buy with you major exchanges, mining machine manufacturers, and individual investors with resources and capital.
It is normal for Coinlist to be crowded by Chinese money.
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https://pro.coinlist.co/trader/FIL-USD
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2. Which major exchange will list the spot first?
Let's talk about futures first:
At present, the favorite trading place for friends of miners is OKEx, because it is a perpetual contract, which is closest to the actual spot price after listing;
Fil on Gateio became Fil6 in June, there is no essential difference, it is just an internal disk - something to play with. It is normal for most people to see the announcement in a cloud of fog, and it is normal to not understand it.
Spot goods:
Just look at the three:
OKEx may not be available tonight;
Huobi has a high probability of being listed on the spot tonight, and it may become the top firm.
Binance: It depends on Zhao Changpeng's face if he can't get on. I didn't say how much face he has, and it has nothing to do with me. What I said is: see if Mr. CZ is willing to accept a slap in the face.
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3. Filecoin price (spot & futures)
When I wrote this article (before 3:00 p.m. today), the June futures price of Fil on Gate was about 26 US dollars; the Fil-USDT perpetual contract futures price on OKex was 32 US dollars, which seemed to be still falling.
After the mainnet is launched, whether it is the internal market, Fil6, or perpetual, it is very likely to rise.
Trend: It will rise in the next five days, and it may fall first and then rise. $50 is possible.
Remarks: Filecoin June futures, the current OTC price is less than $20. Someone asked about futures and OTC? Why can't futures have OTC? It's a matter of one contract and one sentence.
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4. Computing power after the mainnet goes online
Fil Official Announcement: Testnet Computing Power Migrated to Mainnet Computing Power
About 560PB online
Now it is growing at a rate of 15PB a day
About 45 days after the mainnet went live, the computing power scale reached 1EB, which is what is going on as planned.
1EB=1024PB
1PB=1024TB
Simplified calculation: 1EB=10^6TB, miners and friends look at your pockets, how much computing power you have, and what proportion it accounts for.
secondary titlehttps://fil.club/index
5. Changes in the release mechanism
First, 180 days of mined coins will be released linearly.
Second, Juan made a proposal yesterday: 25% of the mined coins will be released on the same day, and the remaining 75% will be released linearly.
judge:
Within five days of going online, Juan’s proposal could not be passed, but it may be passed after a period of time (5-10 days later). After passing, the currency price will drop a part.
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6. Three-party game: project party, investor, miner
When looking at the game, first look at the interests. The long-term interests of the three parties are consistent, and the short-term interests may not be consistent.
For short-term interests, it is best to "make up for what is not enough." Juan's proposal should and must be passed. Because this proposal is reasonable, the child (Filecoin) is getting older, and the fathers (investors) are not easy to manage. Juan has proposed it, and it must be implemented or a part of it must be implemented. Otherwise, you know, for the miners, it is nothing to be happy about. It is better not to be happy, this is the "loss aversion" in behavioral economics.
If Juan's proposal is passed, it will be good for miners in the short term and bad for currency prices, which will be bad for investors in the short term. The project party must balance the two sides and consider its own interests-don't say that the project party or Juan is high-spirited, I am afraid of such a leader. A businessman is a businessman, and a technology businessman is also a businessman. It is much more important to work hard and balance interests than to blow up vision and values.
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7. The return cycle of miners
I can't pay back the money within three months.
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8. How many people don't sleep tonight?
100,000 people.
The Filecoin mainnet will officially start at 148,888 (around 3:00 p.m. UTC). Our country will unify the East Eighth District of Beijing time, which is about eight hours away, which is Beijing time: 23:00 on October 15, 2020 (11:00 p.m.)
As far as I know, there are 100,000 people who do not sleep, including miners, mining machine dealers, customers who buy computing power and mining machines (now customers are becoming more and more professional), and short-term speculators.
A short story about the data source:
I recently participated in a dinner held by a top Filecoin mining machine company. In a large auditorium in Shenzhen, there were crowds of people crowded with people, and nearly a hundred tables were set up. There were more than ten people on each table. I asked the boss of the miner, "Brother, you have so many customers." The other party handed me a cigarette and told me: "These are all agents. There are too many customers to gather together."
The above can be regarded as a joke. I think more than 100,000 people will not sleep tonight. My estimate is conservative.
People who don't know about distributed storage will say, how can it be possible for 100,000 people to wait for a project to go online without sleeping.
People who know Filecoin will say, how could there be only 100,000 people, at least one million people will not sleep and wait.
Specific data have not been verified.
Many people say how do you know how the computing power increases?
Do you know which big exchange does not list Filecoin spot?
You know I can't pay back the money in three months?
Do you know that the price of the currency may rise? It's all this high now.
The article said that mature entrepreneurs have to accept slaps in the face. In the same way, a mature author must dare to make judgments and accept the test of the market.
