The content of this article is simple but important, and directly states such a conclusion:
Now is not a good time to buy Filecoin miners.
secondary title
There are three reasons:
First, the big miners have been tested and launched, but the layout has changed, or the ranking has not been determined. It is impossible to effectively compare the computing power efficiency and hardware layout of various manufacturers within three to five days.The previous top five are no longer the top five according to today's results.
It is divided into two levels: the efficiency of computing power and the layout of hardware
A. The efficiency of computing power has been said before that it cannot be truly known at present. All that can be relied on is the so-called reputation of the manufacturer and the time and results of ecological construction.
Reference link: "point out
B. Hardware layout, according to the hardware layout cycle of the electronics industry, the prelude to the soul has been completed at this time, that is to say, the graphics card, memory, motherboard and other accessories that should be bought have been bought and arranged. For manufacturers, go now It is too late to buy and arrange machines to participate in the big miner test. The real strength of the manufacturer can be judged from the ranking and computing power of the big miner test. According to the statistics of the sales of the top five well-known manufacturers, each purchase of electronic hardware is more than 200 million (this is a conservative estimate). If you don’t do things well, and there is no manufacturer that continues to make efforts in the supply chain, there are three roads in front of you: running away, surrendering, and more sophisticated deception.
Second, the pledge rate issue.This account has also been discussed before, and now there are rumors everywhere, and the picture information (such as the remarks of WHY, the core developer of Filecoin, saying that 1Sector pledged 1Filecoin), is not convincing. The pledge rate written on github before is also uncertain.
If it is really a pledge of 1Sector 1Filecoin (currently a large miner test pledge model, 1sector can pledge up to 1fil)
1sector=32GB
Let's calculate how much Filecoin needs to be pledged for 1P:
10^6G/32G=31250Fil
In other words, 1PB requires 30,000 Fils to be pledged, and if 10PB requires 300,000 Fils to be pledged, the number of coins mined globally on the first day of the mainnet launch is 418,000 (according to the economic model).
If the world can reach 14PB, all mined coins will be pledged the next day. No matter how big it is, it can only be bought from the secondary market. Therefore, miners are the most important support for the price of Filecoin.
At present, almost all of the world's important miners are in China, and there are one or two that can be found in other Asian countries such as South Korea.
Of course, the above is only a preliminary estimate. After the mainnet is launched, 1Sector 1Fil will not be mortgaged like this, nor will it be determined in this way. The mortgage rate will fluctuate to a certain extent. Still, not entirely sure.
Third, there is the issue of timing.The real space situation mentioned in the above two items is the real situation of the war situation. Let's look at the time now. If the computing power equipment is sufficient, if you buy it after three to five days or a week, those who can catch up with the top mine (can be mined on the first day of the mainnet launch) can still catch up, and those who can't catch up with the top mine still can't catch up with the top mine. It is a matter of supply chain time turnover. If you have done electronic supply chain or understand this industry, you must understand it very well.
If there are manufacturers vigorously promoting it now, you must buy and grab the so-called "top mines" in the past few days. You are either bad-hearted or too anxious.
Summarize:
Summarize:
It’s right to buy it, it’s right not to buy it, it’s right to buy it in a few days. Buying or repurchasing now is really the darkest moment.
This is how investment works, from seeing projects in full swing to being down-to-earth. Some friends have been driven by the FOMO mentality and publicity copywriting, and they are eager to try. The first three to five days from today are the darkest time to buy Filecoin.
My advice is very clear: wait three to five days and watch again. At that time, is it the wind blowing tightly, or the tide chasing the waves. Let's research and discuss together. In order for you to better understand the above logic, I specially drew a mind map for your reference.
Linkhttps://shimo.im/, if you have any interesting new ideas, you can click on the link to supplement and open-source the mind map.
