Based on the Filecoin economic model, analyze the FIL cost and early circulation after the mainnet goes live

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Based on the Filecoin economic model, analyze the FIL cost and early circulation after the mainnet goes live

星球君的朋友们

2020-10-11 05:27

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Based on the early investment release cycle/discount data, the current basically stable economic model and coefficients, analyze the FIL cost and early circulation after the launch.

Editor's Note: This article comes fromReal Blockchain, published with permission.

Editor's Note: This article comes from
On the 10th day of launch, the circulation of FIL was 4.08 million, 2.255 million after deducting the official part;
On the first day of launch, the circulation of FIL was 422,000, and after deducting the official part, it was 239,000;
On the 10th day of launch, the circulation of FIL was 4.08 million, 2.255 million after deducting the official part;
On the 30th day of its launch, the circulation of FIL was 12.49 million, which was 7.014 million after deducting the official part.

On the 30th day of its launch, the circulation of FIL was 12.49 million, which was 7.014 million after deducting the official part.

secondary title

Filecoin network overview

The Filecoin main network will be based on the "Space Race" test network and will be officially launched on October 15th. At that time, the miner's account will be cleared, and the computing power of the competition network will be directly used as the computing power of the main network to compete for blocks.

As of 6 a.m. on October 7, the test network has been running for 43 days, with a total network computing power of 456.75 PiB, and the network computing power is growing at a rate of 10.6 PiB every day.

Since the computing power of the test network can be directly loaded to the main network, under this incentive, all miners have been at full capacity, so 10.6 PiB/day will also be the computing power growth rate when the Filecoin main network is launched. Starting from the Filecoin economic model and coefficients, analyze the cost and circulation of FIL after the mainnet goes online

Starting from the Filecoin economic model and coefficients, analyze the cost and circulation of FIL after the mainnet goes online

secondary title

FIL cost situation
Filecoin’s early fundraising was divided into two stages: private placement (Advisor Sale) and public sale (Public Sale), with a total of $205.8 million raised, 150 million FIL sold, more than 2,100 investors (deduplicated) participated, and token holdings per capita It is 71,800 FIL, and the average cost of FIL is $1.36. in,
In the private placement stage, 91.228 million FILs were sold, with 143 participants and an average holding of 638,000 FILs. The average cost of FILs was $0.57;
During the public offering stage, 59.634 million FILs were sold, with 2318 participants and an average holding of 25,700 FILs. The average cost of FILs was $2.58. in ,

55.556 million FILs were sold within 1 hour of the public offering, with 1359 participants, 40,900 FILs per capita, and an average cost of FILs of $2.43;

During the rest of the public offering, 4.078 million FILs were sold, with 816 participants and an average holding of 5,000 FILs. The average cost of FILs was $4.61.

Starting from the Filecoin economic model and coefficients, analyze the cost and circulation of FIL after the mainnet goes online
In addition, from the perspective of the number of transactions, the total number of transactions exceeds 3,000, the average single transaction size is $67,000/transaction, and the average single transaction FIL purchase volume is 49,000 FIL/transaction. in ,
In the private placement stage, there were 210 transactions, and the average FIL purchase volume was 430,000 FIL/transaction;
Within 1 hour of the public offering, there were 1,690 transactions, and the average FIL purchase volume was 33,000 FIL/transaction;

During the remaining period of the public offering, there were 1,167 transactions, and the average FIL purchase volume was 3,500 FIL/transaction.

secondary title

FIL circulation after the mainnet launch

1. FIL initial allocation
The total amount of FIL is 2 billion, which will be distributed among officials, early investors and miners. The basic situation is as follows:
10% investors: 7.5% sold in 2017 + 2.5% retained;

20% Official: 15% Protocol Labs + 5% Filecoin Foundation;

70% miners: 55% storage miners mining + 15% retention.

Starting from the Filecoin economic model and coefficients, analyze the cost and circulation of FIL after the mainnet goes online

2. FIL unlock release and circulation

After Filecoin goes online, the unlocking/release of FIL tokens mainly comes from investors, officials, and miners. The unlocked/released FIL can, but not necessarily, immediately enter the secondary market circulation, and may be held for a long time and used for mortgage mining. Therefore, the mining mortgage mechanism will also affect the circulation of FIL.

1) Early investors: unlock and release 351,000 FIL every day
There are different release cycles and discounts for FIL private placement and public placement. Investors who choose different release cycles can obtain corresponding discounts. The release cycle includes 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years. The fundraising data of FIL in 2017 are as follows:
3-year release cycle, a total of 71.582 million FIL
2-year release cycle, a total of 10.402 million FIL

1-year release cycle, a total of 38.694 million FIL June release cycle, a total of 30.184 million FIL

Starting from the Filecoin economic model and coefficients, analyze the cost and circulation of FIL after the mainnet goes online

By analyzing the number of FIL sold in different cycles, it can be concluded that the total amount released by early investors per day is 351,000.

2) Official: Unlock and release 182,500 FIL every day, promise not to sell in the early stage

The officially unlocked and released FIL includes three parts: Protocol Labs, Protocol Labs team and contributors, and the Filecoin Foundation.

The official three parts totaling 400 million FIL (accounting for 20%) will be released linearly over 6 years, unlocking 182,548 FIL every day.

However, why, an official member of Filecoin in the Slack forum, had informally promised that he would not sell the official part of FIL in the early stage.

3) Miners: Unlock 21,000 FIL on the first day, 30,000 FIL on the 10th day, and 50,000 FIL on the 30th day
The way miners unlock coins mainly includes the space race and mining block rewards. The specific unlocking composition is as follows:
The total reward for Space Race 1 is 3.66 million FIL, which will be released within 6 months after the mainnet goes live, and 20,000 FIL will be released every day

Mining block rewards: 180 days of release, according to the current block reward of 173,000 FIL per day, the amount of FIL released on the Nth day after going online is 960*N: 9600 FIL will be released on the 10th day, and 28,600 FIL will be released on the 30th day.

Space Race 2 rewards are estimated to unlock 20,000, and other small rewards are released in 6 months, and dozens of releases are released every day, which is almost negligible.

Therefore, miners are rewarded for mining blocks, unlocking 21,000 FIL on the first day, 30,000 FIL on the 10th day, and 50,000 FIL on the 30th day.

4) FIL Mortgage Demand: 135,000 FIL are mortgaged every day on the entire network

Miners encapsulate 331,250 sectors per day at a rate of 10.6PiB/day. According to the current mortgage demand of about 0.4FIL/sector, the entire network needs to mortgage 133,000 FIL per day.

In summary, the early release of FIL is as follows:
Starting from the Filecoin economic model and coefficients, analyze the cost and circulation of FIL after the mainnet goes online
Daily unlock/release rate:
Daily early investors, officials and miners unlocking amount: 554,000+960FIL*days
Daily mortgage FIL demand: -133,000/day
Daily new circulation: 421,000+960FIL*days
Daily new circulation (deducting official): 238,000+960FIL*days
Circulation on day 1:
Cumulative amount unlocked by early investors, officials and miners: 555,000
Mortgage FIL deduction: 133,000
FIL in circulation: 422,000
FIL circulation (official deduction): 239,000
Circulation on day 5:
Cumulative amount unlocked by early investors, officials and miners: 2.702 million
Cumulative deductions for mortgage FIL: -664,000
FIL circulation: 2.038 million
FIL circulation (deducting official): 1.126 million
Circulation on the 10th day:
Cumulative amount unlocked by early investors, officials and miners: 5.409 million
Cumulative deduction of mortgage FIL: -1.328 million
FIL circulation: 4.08 million
FIL circulation (minus official): 2.255 million
Circulation on the 15th day:
Cumulative amount unlocked by early investors, officials and miners: 8.139 million
Cumulative deductions for mortgage FIL: -1.992 million
FIL circulation: 6.147 million
FIL circulation (deducting official): 3.409 million
Circulation on the 30th day:
Cumulative amount unlocked by early investors, officials and miners: 16.474 million
Cumulative deduction of mortgage FIL: -3.983 million

FIL circulation: 12.49 million

Note: The initial stage means that within 30 days after the launch of the mainnet, the network scale has not reached the 1EiB benchmark.

Data Sources:

Accurate calculation of mortgage, mining rewards and release is very complicated, because considering the short-term (within 30 days) situation after the mainnet goes online, the calculation is based on the current network conditions.

https://filecoin.io/blog/sale-completed/

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