Editor's Note: This article comes fromDeepChain (ID: deepchain-eva), Author: indiGO, reprinted with authorization by Odaily.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
DeepChain (ID: deepchain-eva)
DeepChain (ID: deepchain-eva)
, Author: indiGO, reprinted with authorization by Odaily.
The mining machine is too complicated to understand, the cloud computing power is too much to be cheated, the futures are not supported and the futures will collapse, the "wealth train" is roaring, and you want to get on the train, but you don't know what the correct posture is?
In order to answer questions about Filecoin, especially investment, for readers, Deeplink Finance has launched a special column "Crossing the Fog of Filecoin Investment", hoping to participate in the investment of Filecoin with everyone and identify the opportunities and risks involved.
This article is the first of this topic: Filecoin Futures.
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Although the token named "FIL" has been launched on the exchange in 2017, because the Filecoin mainnet has not been launched, and the official ERC20 token has not been launched, there is no real FIL token on the market at all.
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Although it is a "stand-alone currency", but with the popularity of Filecoin, FIL futures are still attracting the attention of the market.
When it was first launched, the price rose from $11 to around $27 in just one month. However, due to the very slow progress of the Filecoin project in the first half of 2018 and the overall environment, the price of FIL futures rose from 2018 to 2018. After soaring to the sky in the first day of junior high school, it began to decline continuously.
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Annual data on FIL futures prices
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The average price of FIL futures has picked up again since its launch in 2017. Source: Feixiaohao
Since June this year, the price of FIL futures has been stimulated by the news that the main network is about to go online, directly hitting a new high in two years. According to non-small data, FIL futures prices have risen by 241.99% in the past three months.
FIL futures prices are different, cheap may not necessarily be a good deal
When buying FIL futures, it is inevitable to look at the price, but if you shop around, you will find that the prices of each company are quite different.
Taking FIL6 as an example, the price difference between BiKi and LBank is double.
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The price difference of FIL6 between the two trading platforms is doubled
Why? Why is the price of FIL different on each exchange? For investors who hold their money tightly and wait and see, is the expensive FIL futures guaranteed?
Theoretically speaking, there are two factors that affect the price difference of futures in the market:
The first is that the buying and selling behavior in the market leads to price differences. The transaction data of each trading platform is different, and users cannot perform deposit and withdrawal operations, and move bricks for arbitrage operations, so there is a price difference.
The second is that the FIL futures of each trading platform are initially priced differently, which directly affects the range of FIL futures price fluctuations.
DeepChain interviewed and learned that most of the FIL futures prices on the market are based on the prices of Gate.io and other trading platforms that first launched FIL futures.
For example, Cnet was pricing with reference to the price of FIL on Gate.io at that time, while BiKi exchange was based on the average price of FIL on several exchanges such as Gate.io, and then subscribed to users at a 20% discount.
LBank stated that it obtained the quota through Coinlist and released it to users for fundraising, and opened the market according to the user's fundraising price, that is to say, it opened according to the (raise) cost price of obtaining FIL tokens.
For investors, is it true that futures with high prices are reliable, but futures with low prices are not reliable?
The answer is no.
The reason is simple, because the early tokens are scarce and the price is relatively high.
So don't look at the fact that the FIL36 you bought is several times cheaper than FIL6. You are very happy. By the time you deliver, the currency price may have fallen completely.
In addition, even for the same type of FIL futures, a high price on a certain platform does not mean that the platform is reliable or recognized by users. Because currently all trading platforms are internal stand-alone data, data such as 24-hour trading volume and turnover rate can also be easily refreshed.
Rather than caring about the price of FIL futures, investors should be more concerned about whether the FIL futures you are about to purchase or have already purchased can be redeemed after the mainnet goes live, and when.
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The delivery time of FIL futures is very vague
When you buy a coin, you should at least know when you can get it, right?
why would you say so? In these current trading platforms, FIL futures are mainly divided into four types: FIL1, FIL3, FIL6, FIL12 and FIL36.
FIL I know, what do the numbers 1, 3, 6, 12, 36 mean?
Some exchanges interpret "6" as a linear exchange for users within 6 months after the launch of the mainnet, such as BKEX.
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Some refer to the half-year lock-up period, but the specific lock-up release time is unknown, such as LBank.
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LBank Exchange's explanation on FIL futures
There are also exchanges that directly interpret FIL futures as options, such as TOKOK.
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TOKOK Exchange directly interprets FIL futures as "options"
PS: They are all copying each other's homework, and no one is willing to write a detailed and open and transparent announcement.
Therefore, for investors, if you buy FIL6, one of the problems you face is: you never know, will your futures be delivered on a certain day in the sixth month after the mainnet goes live? Or will the delivery be completed within 6 months after the mainnet goes live? Or will linear delivery start in the 6th month after the mainnet goes live?
Therefore, there is also a huge risk hidden here. In the future, investors who buy futures and platforms that launch futures will have conflicts and differences on the delivery date.
Of course, the platform will generally say that "the final interpretation right belongs to the platform", you understand.
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Since it is a futures, it means that when the contract expires, users who legally purchase futures can exchange it for spot currency. Correspondingly, the trading platform that launches FIL futures should also have the corresponding number of FIL tokens sold as reserves.
However, are there really so many trading platforms that can redeem FIL after the mainnet goes live at the end of August?
At present, there are three sources of FIL futures payment on major trading platforms:
First, the trading platform itself participates in FIL's primary market investment. In short, the exchange itself has a quota of FIL.
A picture of LBank subscribing for FIL through Coinlist in 2017 leaked from the Internet
The second type is that the trading platform obtains the amount in the form of purchase or cooperation from investors participating in the FIL primary market investment as a redemption guarantee.
The third is that the trading platform itself or cooperates with large miners to deploy mining machines or cloud computing power, etc. After the main network is launched, the output of mining is used as a payment guarantee.
Of course, there is another kind, that is, the trading platform does not have a source of payment for FIL futures in the future, so the FIL futures launched on such platforms have huge risks.
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A platform that launches FIL futures and clarifies the source of payment
The DeepChain survey found that among the 52 trading platforms included in the statistics, only 18 platforms have clearly defined the delivery cycle of FIL.
Of these 18, only 9 have made it clear that the FIL they sell comes from early ICO investment; 3 claim to have the support of Filecoin mines or mining pools behind them; 3 have launched Filecoin's computing power products in full swing to pave the way for later supply.
None of the remaining trading platforms announced the source of delivery of FIL.
Miners: 70% (that is, 1.4 billion pieces), released linearly through block rewards, halved every 6 years;
Team: 15% (that is, 300 million pieces), as the R&D and operating expenses of the protocol laboratory team, released linearly in 6 years;
Investors: 10% (that is, 200 million pieces), allocated to investors participating in private placements and public placements, released linearly in 6-36 months;
Foundation: 5% (that is, 100 million), as long-term community building, network management and other expenses, released linearly in 6 years;
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Release rate of FIL tokens
If calculated on a 6-month cycle, the release amount of the foundation in 6 months is about 8.33 million, the release amount of early investors is about 33.33 million, and the release amount of the founding team is about 25 million pieces.
Calculated according to the linearly decreasing release of mining, the mining release amount in 6 months is about 80 million, but combined with the actual situation and the economic model, the tradable FIL tokens produced by miners in 6 months of mining will be far less than 80 million.
For example, if you use 1T space storage, you need 1 FIL token to mortgage, because the storage miners have to promise to complete the task of storing customer data within a certain period of time, and then generate a space-time proof, and submit it to the blockchain network. Proof that they have been storing data.
Therefore, according to the statistics, it can be calculated that the release amount of FIL tokens in 6 months is about 150 million.
However, if we look at the public information, we can find that the current number of FIL6 futures on the exchange has exceeded the 6-month release of the FIL main network currency.
From the perspective of data alone, the FIL futures on the trading platform after the mainnet is launched are doomed not to be fully cashed.
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Issuance of FIL futures on the trading platform based on public information and interview data
Of course, there may not be too much demand from users who really want to redeem futures into spot, because the FIL futures that have been launched may only be partly sold, and they are not saturated. The "artificial data" of left-handed and right-handed.
From the perspective of industry insiders, after the Filecoin mainnet goes online, FIL tokens enter the market circulation, and when the FIL data of all exchanges tend to be unified, once there is a situation where payment cannot be made, investors will most likely suffer losses:
The platform may raise the futures price before the release of tokens, and invest money to lower the price before the delivery date. During the delivery, a large number of users cut their meat and left the market, and the platform sold and collected coins at a low price, and made a difference in the price while cashing some users.
