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2025-07-28 09:56:47
QCP: The market expects Ethereum and Bitcoin to face pullback pressure around $4,000 and $120,000
Odaily Planet Daily News QCP released a daily market analysis report stating that Ethereum is gradually approaching the $4,000 mark that it has reached for the first time since December last year. As the inflow of funds to the spot Ethereum ETF has exceeded that of the Bitcoin ETF for seven consecutive days, the market's attention and hype about ETH has become increasingly heated. Considering that the market value of ETH is still only one-fifth of BTC, the threshold for attracting institutional and corporate funds is relatively lower, so it is more sensitive to price push. Although inflows into spot BTC ETFs have slowed, price action remains robust. Even though a long-term holder sold 80,000 BTC last Friday, the market showed strong acceptance, with traders quickly buying on dips and the brief rise in volatility quickly flattened. BTC's dominance rate remains around 60%, with little volatility over the past week, reflecting the market's long-term confidence in BTC as a store of value asset rather than a full rotation to the altcoin market. This also means that ETH and other mainstream currencies still have room to further compete for market share. In contrast, when ETH hit an all-time high in November 2021, BTC's dominance rate fell below 45%, while ETH was close to 20%. However, in the short term, the market's long positions are relatively crowded. BTC and ETH's perpetual contract open interest is close to a one-year high of $45 billion and $28 billion, respectively; the perpetual funding rates of major exchanges are also generally over 15%. It is worth noting that some large investors have begun to take profits on their long positions. For example, a larger ETH 26 SEP 25 3.6k/4k/4.2k hawk call spread combination has been closed; at the same time, a large number of BTC 8 AUG 25 $110,000 put options have been bought as a hedge against short-term downside risks. Judging from the flattening of option flows and front-end risk reversals, the market expects ETH and BTC to face certain profit-taking pressure around $4,000 and $120,000, respectively. But in the current context of strong momentum, strong narrative, and a cooperating macro environment, QCP believes that long-term holders and institutional investors will continue to "buy on dips", as seen last Friday.
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