Original - Odaily
Author - Nan Zhi
Yesterday, Nostr Assets Protocol announced its firstFair Mints External Projects TNA, TNA, an acronym for Taproot Name Assets, introduces a groundbreaking protocol for the issuance and management of programmable Bitcoin name assets.
Previously, Nostr Assets’ first Fair Mint had a high profit rate, but the popularity of the Bitcoin ecosystem has declined recently. Odaily will analyze the official announcement and the probability behind it in this article.
Introduction to TNA protocol
TNA is a protocol for issuing and managing Tapnames, which are Bitcoin-native name assets (Name assets) developed based on the Taproot Asset Protocol (TAP) and designed with easy-to-use integration for the Lightning Network.
Tapnames are human-readable names such as “satoshi.btc” that are mapped to wallet addresses on various networks within the Bitcoin ecosystem and linked to external identifiers such as IPFS content hashes or Twitter links. TNA is designed to integrate various Bitcoin assets by forming unique TNA category domains, each Tapname is assigned an identifier corresponding to a specific Bitcoin asset (such as ORDI, sat).
According to the official documentation, Tapname is similar to ENS name in some aspects, but has some obvious differences as follows:
As a native Bitcoin asset, Tapnames are customized to support and integrate other Bitcoin-based DApps, including but not limited to payment processing, social networking, and community management. By mapping between BRC-20 and other Bitcoin assets, it improves the user experience and simplifies transactions and multi-asset management, while also enhancing interoperability and scalability in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
TNA elevates the traditional concept of a decentralized name or domain name by introducing inherent programmability into name assets, allowing owners to continuously upgrade their assets to include specific financial features and other functionality. This will add value to asset owners while reducing reliance on external networks and services.
TNA inherits the privacy features of the UTXO model and provides a more optimized account experience for the multi-asset BTC ecosystem.
Lightning Starter explained in detail
TNA Token Situation
Total amount: 210, 000, 000 pieces;
Lightning Starter quota: 31, 500, 000 pieces;
Token allocation: team and advisors (10%), future private placement (10%), community treasury (30%), airdrop (20%), ecosystem (15%), Lightning Starter (15%);
Token use cases: Stake to purchase or issue Tapnames, participate in TNA’s governance.
Overview of previous draw methods
There are 12 official prize pools set up, and the winning probability of the last four prize pools is double that of the first eight prize pools. Users select 1 of 12 prize pools, invest Treat and Trick assets, and receive a pool ranking.
For each block, one of the 12 prize pools is selected according to the hexadecimal tail number of the block hash value;
The top 50 people in the prize pool will receive a reward (51-100 people will be drawn again);
A total of 300 draws, 15,000 winning addresses, 2160 NOSTRs for the first 100 times, 1080 NOSTRs for 101-200, and 540 NOSTRs for 201-300.
way of participation
In this Fair Mint, participants need to submit TRICK, TREAT orNOSTR Locked into one of twelve draw pools.
in2 lottery poolsNeed to useNOSTRTo participate, one lottery pool is assigned one lottery number and the other is assigned two lottery numbers. Nostr Assets said this commitment symbolizes support for the chain and nurturing the growth of the Nostr Assets ecosystem.
(Odaily note: NOSTR is the first Fair Mint token of Nostr Assets Protocol, and there has been no clear official use case before.)
Remaining10 lottery poolsNeed to lockTRICK AND TREAT(hereinafter referred to as double T). Documentation states that this established pattern will continue, with TNA needing to lock down both pools at the upcoming Fair Mint event.
Due to unclear explanations in the official documents, there are several doubtful points regarding the participation method. At present,Awaiting official explanation：
Can an account participate in the Double T pool and the NOSTR pool at the same time?
How many lottery numbers are assigned to the Double T pool;
Does TNA’s need to lock two pools mean it needs to hold two assets at the same time;
The above issues will affect users participation strategies. Users are recommended to continue to pay attention to official account articles and Telegram group instructions.
Update January 10: Nostr Assets Protocol responded on TelegramTNA’s new address issue, saying that each Nostr address can only participate in one lottery pool. This means that participants need to separate the addresses of NOSTR tokens from Double T and calculate participation strategies separately; it also explains the confusion in the Fair Mint document about whether to hold both tokens at the same time.
Winning settings
Total TNA Prizes: 3600 (first 5000 winners), 1800 (2nd 5000 winners), 900 (last 5000 winners)
Winning addresses per block: 50
Lottery period: about 300 blocks/about 2.1 days
Stage settings
The first phase (participation phase) starts on January 12, 2024 and lasts for two days. At the end of this phase, 50% of the locked TRICK, TREAT, and NOSTR will be refunded.
The time for the second phase (lottery phase) is to be determined, and the remaining 50% of Double T and NOSTR will be refunded.
The time for the third phase (reward redemption phase) is to be determined, and unclaimed rewards will be returned to the $TNA team.
Nostr Assets said it expects TNA to have a tighter schedule based on previous experience with Fair Mint.
strategic budget
Which pool is more worth participating in, Double T or NOSTR?
Since the official has not yet explained the allocation of lottery numbers for the double T pool, based on the previous situation, we assume that there are a total of 12 lottery pools, including 8 odd number pools (7 for double T, 1 for NOSTR), and 4 for even numbers. Pools (Double T occupies 3, NOSTR occupies 1),
Then the probability of winning the token is double T: Nostr= (7+ 3* 2): (1+ 1* 2) = 13: 3
Double T circulation market value = 8700 * 0.59 = 51.33 million US dollars
NOSTR circulating market value = 1890* 2.45 = 46.3 million US dollars
Therefore, before Double T releases a large number of subsequent tokens, the Double T pool is more worthy of purchase and participation.
How many tokens are needed to participate in the draw?
Following the lottery pool allocation mentioned in the previous section, the winning addresses for Double T and NOSTR should be 12, 187 and 2, 813, which is the same as the previous Fair Mint. Under rational circumstances, the investment ratio of the three levels should be 4: 2: 1. Correspondingly there are:
Double T: The minimum investment should be 87000000/12187/73 = 3, 059 coins, and the maximum investment should be 3, 059* 4 = 12, 237 coins
NOSTR: The minimum investment should be 18900000/2813/73 = 2, 879 coins, and the maximum investment should be 2, 879* 4 = 11, 517 coins
How not to be the unlucky guy?
According to the previous Fair Mint, 300 draws are too few for 16 draw numbers, and the probability cannot be effectively converged, and there is great volatility. Therefore, on the one hand, it is recommended to participate with semicolons and equalize the situation. On the other hand, you can choose the corresponding ranking according to risk preference:
For the single number pool, theoretically 18.75 draws (300/16) will be drawn, but the theoretical probability of drawing within 19 times is only 58.42% (meaning that if you rank outside 19*50 = 950, the theoretical probability is 41.58 % probability of not being drawn);
For the single number pool, the probability of being drawn within 22 times is 81.66% (there is an 18.34% probability of not being drawn among 1100 people);
The probability within 23 times is 86.99%;
The probability within 24 times is 91.09%;
The probability within 25 times is 94.11%;
The probability within 26 times is 96.24%;
The probability within 29 times is 99.20%;
The above are purely theoretical calculationsGuaranteed probability, the corresponding calculation formula is ∑(C(300,number of times) × (probability of drawing)^number of times×(1-probability of drawing)^(300-number of times)). Readers who are interested or plan to do further research can list all probabilities Make your selection.
Reference reading
Analysis of Nostr Assets’ first Fair Mint rules and production investment income “BTC Ecosystem”
