Shushuo Mining 2020: The total scale of the two major mining industries is about 7.6 billion US dollars, and the revenue of 8 mining pools is expected to exceed 10 million

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Shushuo Mining 2020: The total scale of the two major mining industries is about 7.6 billion US dollars, and the revenue of 8 mining pools is expected to exceed 10 million

PANews

2021-02-10 04:26

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A comprehensive review of the mining industry in 2020 to restore the true appearance of the mining circle.

Analyst | Carol Editor | Tong

Data Partner | Produced by BTC.com | PANews

In 2020, the "mining circle" has experienced many major events.

The first is that Bitcoin has completed its third production reduction. As the currency price performance changed from stable to skyrocketing before and after the production reduction, the Bitcoin mining industry has also turned from crisis to opportunity. The annual revenue is basically the same as that in 2019, which is stable and excessive. In addition, there are more than ten other tokens such as BCH, BSV, BTG, ETC, DASH, ZEC, XZC (now renamed FIRO), etc., which will also successfully complete the production reduction in 2020.

Secondly, with the full-scale explosion of the Ethereum ecology in 2020 and the continuous accumulation of ETH asset premiums, the Ethereum mining industry has also entered a period of rapid development, and together with the Bitcoin mining industry, it constitutes the two main markets of the mining industry.

In addition, Ebang International, a well-known mining machine manufacturer, successfully landed on Nasdaq for the second time after Canaan Zhizhi. Mining machine manufacturers continue to "test the water" in the traditional capital market.

PAData will comprehensively review the mining industry in 2020 through data analysis of industry fundamentals, blockchain network fundamentals, and revenue performance of major market participants, and restore the true face of the mining circle.

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Data review:

The annual maximum estimated energy consumption of BTC mining is about 77.78 TWh, which is equivalent to the energy consumption of Chile; the annual maximum estimated energy consumption of ETH mining is about 14.64 TWh, which is equivalent to the energy consumption scale of Tunisia.
The total output scale of BTC mining is about 5.012 billion US dollars, and the total output scale of ETH mining is about 2.69 billion US dollars.
The mining difficulty of the Bitcoin network has been adjusted 28 times throughout the year, of which 17 have been raised, with the highest single increase of about 14.95%. , The difficulty of mining ETH has increased significantly this year.
In 2020, the growth rate of the computing power of Bitcoin and Ethereum will be lower than the growth rate of their respective currency prices, and miners may obtain excess profits.
In 2020, F2Pool is the mining pool with the highest computing power share of BTC, with an average annual computing power share of about 17.53%, followed by Poolin, BTC.com and AntPool with an average annual computing power share of more than 10%; the computing power share of ETH mining pool It is relatively stable and has a higher degree of concentration of computing power. The annual average computing power share of the three major mining pools SparkPool, Ethermine and F2Pool reached 75.51%.
Among the BTC mining pools, there are 6 mining pools with an estimated service fee income of more than 10 million US dollars, among which the service fee income of F2Pool and Poolin exceeds 20 million US dollars; among the ETH mining pools, the estimated service fee income exceeds 1,000 US dollars Ten thousand dollars only Spark Pool and Ethermine.
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The total size of the two major mining markets is about 7.6 billion US dollars, and the proportion of handling fees continues to increase

The scale of the industry is an important factor in the fundamentals of the industry, and energy consumption is an indicator that reflects the actual scale of the industry. According to the energy consumption scale estimated by Digiconomist, the annual energy consumption scale of the BTC mining industry is basically stable, with an annual growth rate of about 6.37%. The highest estimated energy consumption for the whole year is about 77.78 TWh, which is comparable to that of Chile, and the lowest estimated energy consumption is about 56.58 TWh, and the estimated energy consumption has a short period of decline after the third BTC production reduction until 6 It gradually recovered at the beginning of the month.

Benefiting from the explosive growth of DeFi, the scale of ETH mining has increased greatly in 2020. The estimated energy consumption of ETH mining increased from 8.11TWh at the beginning of the year to 14.64TWh at the end of the year, an annual increase of about 80.52%, and the annual increase was significant. The highest estimated energy consumption in the year is about 14.64 TWh, which is about 1/5 of the highest estimated energy consumption of the BTC mining industry, which is equivalent to the energy consumption scale of Tunisia.

The annual change in the scale of energy consumption is basically consistent with the change in the output scale of the two major mining industries. According to PAData's previous panoramic review, the total output of BTC mining in 2020 is about 5.012 billion US dollars, which is 3.78% "shrunk" from 2019, basically the same, while the total output of ETH mining is about 2.69 billion US dollars. Significantly higher than in 2019.

It is worth noting that in August and September 2020, as DeFi liquidity mining stimulated the increasing number of users and increasing transaction volume, the monthly output scale of ETH mining was once higher than that of BTC mining, especially in September, ETH mining The total monthly output of BTC is about 489 million US dollars, which is 162 million US dollars more than the total output of BTC mining in the same period, which is equivalent to 48.98% higher. The peak of the monthly output scale of ETH mining is a "silhouette" of the scale potential of ETH mining in the future.

The output composition of the two major mining industries of BTC and ETH includes block rewards and transaction fees. Judging from the proportion of the two parts, the BTC mining industry is relatively more dependent on the block rewards, and the handling fees of the ETH mining industry are relatively low. higher percentage.

According to statistics, the total handling fee of BTC mining in 2020 is about 326 million US dollars, an increase of about 108.97% compared with 2019, and the distribution of handling fees in the whole year is divided by the third production reduction, showing a big difference. After the third production reduction (including the day of production reduction), the average daily transaction fee is about 1.2445 million US dollars, which is equivalent to an increase of about 4.75 times compared with that before the production reduction. Affected by this, the proportion of transaction fees on the Bitcoin chain in mining revenue has also expanded from an average of 2.8% last year to an average of 6.69% this year, an increase of nearly 4 percentage points.

In contrast, the total handling fee of ETH mining in 2020 is about 631 million US dollars, and the annual growth trend is significant, especially in the third quarter, the popular DeFi liquidity mining caused the Ethereum network to become congested, and the handling fee rose rapidly , The proportion of service fees in miners' income also increased from 17.34% at the beginning of the quarter to 30.05% at the end of the quarter. Affected by this, the average proportion of ETH mining fee income in the total income for the whole year also reached 16.06%, which is nearly 10 percentage points higher than that of Bitcoin in the same period.

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Mining difficulty continues to increase, and excess returns still exist

From the perspective of network status, the mining difficulty of the Bitcoin network was adjusted 28 times throughout the year, of which only 9 times the difficulty was lowered, and the remaining 17 times were all raised. About 14.95%, and there are 4 other difficulty increases of more than 8%. The cumulative increase in difficulty throughout the year was about 43.79%. Compared with the cumulative increase of 97.67% in 2019, the difficulty adjustment this year is relatively milder.

The adjustment range of Ethereum’s mining difficulty throughout the year is slightly higher than that of Bitcoin in the same period. The mining difficulty rose from 2456 T at the beginning of the year to 3728 T at the end of the year, an increase of about 52.20% throughout the year, which is equivalent to the 5.32% increase in 2019. Compared with this year, the mining difficulty of ETH has been greatly improved.

Changes in mining difficulty are inseparable from changes in computing power. In the mining cycle, the rise in currency prices - the increase in computing power - the increase in difficulty has formed a causal chain reaction. The moderate increase in the difficulty of BTC mining is a reflection of the moderate increase in the computing power of the entire network. According to statistics, in 2020, the computing power of Bitcoin's entire network rose from 112.93 EH/s at the beginning of the year to 153.48 EH/s at the end of the year, an increase of about 35.91% for the whole year, which is a sharp drop from the 143.59% increase in the computing power of the entire network in 2019. Compared with the 304.74% increase of BTC in 2020, the modest increase in computing power gives the mining industry a theoretical opportunity to obtain excess profits.

On the other hand, the sharp increase in the difficulty of ETH mining is also a manifestation of the substantial increase in the computing power of the entire network. According to statistics, in 2020, the computing power of the entire Ethereum network rose from 141.55 TH/s at the beginning of the year to 281.37 TH/s at the end of the year, an annual increase of about 98.78%. Compared with the 10.54% decline in 2019, the computing power of the entire Ethereum network has risen sharply in 2020, and the fundamentals of the mining industry have greatly improved.

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F2Pool and SparkPool respectively dominate the two major mining industries, and the estimated annual income of 8 mining pools exceeds 10 million

Mining pools are major players in the mining industry and one of the signs of a mature mining industry. From the perspective of the annual average computing power share, F2Pool is the mining pool with the highest computing power share in 2020, with an average annual computing power share of about 17.53%, followed by Poolin and BTC.com, with an annual average computing power share of about 14.81% and 12.30%. In addition, AntPool's annual average computing power share also exceeds 10%, about 10.97%.

If we observe the changes in the computing power share of major mining pools in a smaller time period, we can find that the competition among large BTC mining pools is still very fierce. Since the beginning of this year, except for F2Pool which basically holds the highest computing power share, the computing power share rankings of other mining pools are constantly changing. For example, Poolin, BTC.com, and AntPool, which ranked second to fourth in terms of computing power share, alternated their positions in the market, while the share competition between mining pools ranked lower in computing power share became more intense.

But similar to exchanges, the scale effect of large BTC mining pools has become prominent, and it is difficult for these relatively small mining pools to compete with large mining pools. The roadside mining pool, which ranks fifth in the “airborne” computing power share market, also failed to continue its strong development momentum and further occupy its share.

Another noteworthy news in the field of mining pools in 2020 is that the mining pools of exchanges have "revealed their prowess". Huobi.pool, OKExPool, and Binance Pool have established BTC mining pools one after another. About 9.39%, 3.57% and 11.48%. Judging from the trend, the computing power share of Huobi.pool and Binance Pool continued to grow, especially Binance Pool, in the fourth quarter when the BTC market was the best, its computing power share increased significantly by more than 4 percentage points, and the market ranking rose won 4 places.

The computing power share of the ETH mining pool is relatively stable, and the computing power is more concentrated. The annual average computing power share of the three major mining pools SparkPool, Ethermine and F2Pool reached 75.51%, among which SparkPool accounted for 32.69%. From the perspective of monthly computing power share changes, except for F2Pool, which suddenly occupied 73.47% of the entire network’s computing power share in June, SparkPool was firmly in the top spot of ETH mining pools in other periods.

Judging from the correlation between block output and computing power share of major BTC mining pools, Binance Pool is the mining pool with the best "sense of rhythm" in 2020. Positive correlation, Pearson's coefficient exceeds 0.9. Other mining pools with a good sense of rhythm include Huobi.pool and ViaBTC. There is a weak positive correlation between the computing power and output of the two mining pools, and the Pearson coefficient is above 0.6. One thing these mining pools have in common is that in the fourth quarter, when the BTC price started to climb rapidly, their share of hash power also increased.

On the contrary, the computing power of the two mining pools Poolin and SlushPool are negatively correlated with the blockchain output, and the Pearson coefficients have reached about -0.81 and -0.63 respectively. As it climbs, its share of computing power decreases and block production decreases.

The performance of other large mining pools, such as AntPool, BTC.com, and F2Pool is relatively stable, and there is basically no statistical correlation between computing power and block output.

Among the Ethereum mining pools, Spider Pool is the only mining pool with a highly positive correlation between computing power and block output. The Pearson coefficient is about 0.77, which means that the increase in Spider Pool’s computing power share coincides with the rise in the price of ETH. increase. On the contrary, the computing power of UUPool and BWPool is highly negatively correlated with block output, and the Pearson coefficient is around -0.7.

Like BTC mining pools, large ETH mining pools, such as SparkPool, Ethermine, and F2Pool, do not have a statistical correlation between their computing power and block output, and the annual block output is relatively stable.

Theoretically, the computing power of the mining pool is directly related to the income. The higher the computing power, the greater the amount of blocks produced, and the higher the income. On the other hand, the income is also related to the currency price, but since the mining pool does not necessarily convert the currency-based income into the legal currency-based income after the currency-based income is distributed, the impact of the currency price on the mining pool’s income is highly random. In order to uniformly observe the income of the mining pool, this article will estimate the mining income based on the currency price of the day.

According to statistics, F2Pool, Poolin, BTC.com, and AntPool, which have the highest computing power share in the BTC mining pool, also have the highest estimated total annual output. In 2020, the estimated mining output will exceed 500 million US dollars, of which F2Pool is expected to have the highest output $888 million. If the service fee of 3% is estimated, there are 6 mining pools with service fee income of more than 10 million US dollars, among which the service fee income of F2Pool and Poolin exceeds 20 million US dollars.

Compared with 2019, under the same fee rate, the income of different mining pools will also change due to changes in the share of computing power. For example, in 2019, BTC.com has the highest annual average computing power share and the highest income, about US$26.22 million. In 2020, F2Pool has the highest annual average computing power share, with an income of about US$26.64 million. But on the whole, the income of the BTC mining industry is relatively stable. According to statistics, it has 1% of the computing power of the entire network. 1.49 million US dollars, which has something to do with the fact that the BTC mining industry has maintained a similar total output scale in the past two years.

In order to estimate the total annual output of ETH mining pools, PAData equates the computing power share of mining pools with its share in the total output of ETH mining, and then estimates the total annual output of each mining pool. However, here The total annual output does not take into account uncle block and empty block rewards, so the actual total output may be higher than the estimated value.

Bitmain still dominates BTC mining machines, and the Ethereum brand custom machine market is emerging

In addition to mining pools, mining machine manufacturers are also important participants in the mining industry, and compared to mining pools, mining machine manufacturers are in a more upstream position in the industry. According to F2Pool's monitoring of the mining machine market, as of the end of January 2021, there are currently 101 BTC mining machines on the market. According to the brand classification, Bitmain, MicroBT and Canaan Zhizhi are the three manufacturers that produce the most mining machines. Among them, Bitmain has produced a total of 25 BTC mining machines, MicroBT and Canaan Zhizhi have produced 19 and 17 respectively. A BTC mining machine. Ebang International, one of the three giants of traditional mining machines, has only produced 10 types of mining machines, which is equivalent to the number of mining machines produced by Innosilicon.

Among the 15 mining machines with the best profit performance on the market, Bitmain and MicroBT each have 4 models, Canaan Intellectual Property and Hornbill each have 2 models. The average computing power of the 15 mining machines has reached 89 T. If the cost is calculated at the price of 0.34 yuan/kWh, the average daily net income of these mining machines is about 94.33 yuan. There are 4 mining machines with a daily net income of more than 100 yuan, which are Whatsmart M30S++, Antminer S19 Pro, Whatsminer M30S+ and Antminer S19. Among them, Whatsmart M30S++ has the highest income of 124.5 yuan.

ETH mining machines can be divided into assembled machines and customized machines. The rapid development of customized machines in 2020 is a sign of the gradual maturity of the ETH mining industry, and it is also a development direction of the ETH mining industry in the future. According to F2Pool's statistics, as of the end of January 2021, there are 60 ETH mining machines on the market, of which 35 are assembled machines, accounting for 58.33%, and about 25 are customized, accounting for about 41.67%.

Among the assembled machines, there are 13 types of mining machines with RX graphics cards and 10 types of mining machines with GTX graphics cards, which together account for 65.71% of the total number of assembled machines. Among the customized machines, Innosilicon, Panda and Wolfshen are the more mainstream brands. Among them, Innosilicon has launched 5 customized mining machines, Panda and Wolfshen have launched 3 customized mining machines respectively, and the three together account for the customized machine market. 47.83%.

Judging from the revenue performance of ETH mining machines, among the 15 mining machines with the highest daily net income, there are 8 assembled machines and 7 customized machines. Among the customized machines, Innosilicon has 4 models with better revenue performance, which is the strongest product revenue capability among all customized manufacturers.

The average computing power of the 15 mining machines is about 747M, and the highest computing power is Linzhi Phoenix, which has a computing power of 2600M, which is much higher than other ETH mining machines on the market. If the cost is calculated according to the price of 0.34 yuan/kWh, the average daily net income of these 15 mining machines is about 418 yuan, and the daily net income of Linzhi Phoenix reaches 1477 yuan, which is also much higher than other mining machines on the market.