Halfway through 2020. Under the background of large-scale iteration of mining machines, the miners encountered the epidemic again, and survived the "black swan" and "halving", passed through the heavy smoke, and entered the "midfield battle".

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1. The macroeconomic black swan "severely hits" the mining circle ★★★★★

On March 12, Bitcoin plummeted by more than 50% to $3,800. Before that, Bitcoin had just dropped from more than $10,000 to $8,000. Before that waterfall had time to digest, the market immediately "cut in half." This not only caused the contract market to blow up more than 3.8 billion US dollars within 24 hours, but also caused most of the mainstream mining machines to touch the shutdown currency price, and the mining cost was broken down in a short time. In the following week, the computing power of the entire network dropped from about 124E to about 90E, a drop of nearly 27%.

Although the sharp drop is related to the capital market liquidity crisis superimposed on high leverage, the impact of the epidemic on the entire capital market makes the currency circle unable to stand alone. However, compared with the anecdotes of 4 circuit breakers in the US stock market and "negative oil prices" within 10 days, the currency circle seems to have found some "comfort".

We have also seen that "312" is a blow to highly speculative miners, but for relatively conservative miners, the plunge and reshuffle can obtain excess returns; the new generation of mining machines is sufficiently "resistant" and can still maintain profit.

"312" seems to be the halving of Bitcoin that was staged in advance. Fortunately, there is no overlap between the two, giving miners time to adjust.

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2. Mining coins "get together" to reduce production ★★★☆

The scarcity of mining coins has almost become a standard configuration in economic design parameters. In the first half of 2020, 6 currencies have completed production cuts ahead of Bitcoin. in:

On January 5th, BEAM was halved; on March 17th, ETC was halved; on April 14th, SERO was halved; on April 8th, BCH was halved; on April 9th, BSV was halved; on April 28th , DASH cut production by 7.14%.

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3. Bitcoin completed the third halving ★★★★★

At 3:23 in the morning on May 12, the last 12.5BTC block and the first 6.25BTC block of Bitcoin came within seconds. Although it has been expected for a long time, it still seems a bit "caught off guard".

One day before the halving, the computing power of Bitcoin's entire network once hit a record high. The halving brought a short-term arbitrage opportunity. Miners switched their computing power to BCH and BSV with the same algorithm in pursuit of double the currency-based income. This "interest spread" quickly flattened within a few hours. However, the halving effect was not "immediate" as usual, and the currency price did not see significant fluctuations on that day, and even fell slightly.

On the day of halving on May 12th, compared with the previous week, the computing power of the top 10 mining pools dropped by about 18E, and the computing power of the entire network dropped from 120E to about 100E. In the following week, the computing power of the entire network dropped by 30%, and the miners chose to temporarily shut down, waiting for the "wet season" to fight again.

For the Eastern and Western communities, this "halving" is also an opportunity to think about the meaning of Bitcoin, full of "ceremonial sense".

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4. Miners completed the "Great Migration" during the wet season ★★★★

The "annual" wet season comes after the halving. This year's wet season begins in mid-to-late May, and it takes 1-2 weeks for mining machines to move from the northwest to the southwest.

Some mining machines did not have time to evacuate from the water-rich area at the beginning of the year, but were forced to stand by due to the epidemic, and started working directly after the water-rich season arrived. Some miners with old models did not rush to migrate, but "wait and see" whether the currency price after halving can cover the mining cost, and then decide whether to transfer.

The Fengshui electricity price with an average price of less than 0.23 yuan has greatly reduced mining costs. Mining machines with a power consumption ratio of 50W and lower continue to be supplied. Power wars, and then promote the Bitcoin network computing power to rise to a record high.

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5. The mine is now "difficult to attract investment" ★★★

This year's high water supply exceeds demand, and the cost of electricity has dropped significantly. Compared with last year's full-service electricity fee of 0.24-0.26 yuan, this year's electricity price is basically in the early 0.2 yuan position.

Since the flood season came earlier than last year, and 30% of the old models in the entire network will be eliminated, power resources will be redundant. This situation has also made it more difficult for many mines to attract investment, and this year's mine business has also changed from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market". At the same time, some mining farms adopt the method of joint mining with miners to share risks and profits.

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6. Change of main mining equipment ★★★☆

Although new models with greater computing power and better power consumption come to the market every year, there are still significant differences this year. The large-scale hardware update announced the end of the hardware competition in the previous round of halving cycle and the beginning of a new round of "arms race".

As 30% of the old models are about to be phased out, the main models for mining will switch from 80-60W to 60-40W mining machines. With the launch of S19, M30 and other series, the replacement of "flagship" models has begun.

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7. Expansion of the "Small Mining Coin" ecological chain★★★

While the mainstream coins repeatedly "tested" the bull market, some "small mining coins" also surprised the market and won the recognition and support of the community and miners. GRIN, BEAM, HNS and other small-scale mining coins full of geek spirit and technical hard core have continuously increased their popularity at home and abroad.

Some trading platforms are optimistic about the market value growth space of small mining coins. They evaluate and launch small mining coins from indicators such as team, community consensus, code development, and token economic mechanism, which improves the liquidity of small mining coins.

In the first half of the year, the ASIC mining machines of CKB and HNS were launched, which opened the prelude to the competition of professional mining machines in the two mining scales with an annual mining output value of more than 100 million yuan and 50-60 million yuan respectively.

F2Pool Yuchi Innovation Zone launched KDA, HNS, TRB, RVC, UFO and other new coins in the first half of the year, and miners have more choices in small mining coins.

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8. Mining financial tools attract more attention★★★★

The diversification of mining financial products began to show a trend in the first half of 2020. "Halving + hardware replacement" has caused miners to pay more attention to financial tools.

Compared with the daily needs of paying electricity bills in the past, the large-scale purchase and migration of machines in the first half of the year made miners have stronger demand for loans; the "312" black swan caused miners to pay more attention to currency price risk hedging, and platforms such as Cobo developed and launched hedging To preserve value, miners began to use such financial products to seek stable costs for 3-6 months or even longer, avoiding most of the risk exposure caused by electricity charges.

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9. 60% of Ethereum graphics card mining machines will be replaced

The income of Ethereum mining is relatively stable, and it is not so sensitive to electricity prices, and generally maintains a "calm" state. In the first half of 2020, a considerable number of Ethereum miners need to upgrade or renew their hardware.

The DAG file of Ethereum reached 4GB at about the end of December this year. At this point, the 4G graphics card, which accounts for about 60% of the total computing power of the entire network, will not be able to continue mining ETH. The Windows system itself occupies a certain amount of video memory, and the stop mining time will be advanced.

Manufacturers of 4G graphics card mining machines have adopted firmware upgrade measures to extend the service life of the mining machines for several months. Some graphics card models adopt BIOS upgrade and hardware transformation plan to expand the graphics card capacity. Big mining players started a large-scale hardware replacement earlier.

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10. Mining machine manufacturers US stock financing★★★

In June, Ebang International, which had just updated its prospectus, successfully "ringed the bell" a few days later, becoming the second mining machine manufacturer after Canaan Technology went public on NASDAQ in November last year.

Just a few days ago, Ebang International held a listing ceremony at the InterContinental Hotel in Hangzhou. Previously, Ebang International, which had failed twice on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, finally realized its dream of capital market.

The global capital market has been hit hard by the epidemic, and mining machine manufacturers have never stopped seeking mainstream financing. Although the capital market is temporarily "cold", the signing of contracts around the world and the development of more business fields have also made people more interested in mining machine stocks. "Recovery" is expected.

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Filecoin mainnet online

Filecoin, which has been "bounced" several times, will finally be "delivered" to the entire mining circle in the second half of 2020. If all goes well, Fileocin will announce detailed parameters at the end of July and launch the mainnet at the end of August.

In 2017, Filecoin updated its white paper and completed the largest initial coin offering on CoinList at that time. Including the Pre-sale, it raised a total of 275 million US dollars. After its launch, its market value is expected to surpass that of Ethereum.

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Ethereum 2.0 Mainnet Launched

Ethereum 2.0, which has more "jump tickets", is expected to officially meet with you before the end of the year. According to developer Afri Schoedon, if all goes well, the main network of Ethereum 2.0 will be launched in November, or it may continue to be delayed.

The Phase 0 implementation of the "Beacon Chain" will be the first step towards realizing this new, more scalable network. After phase 0, several phases need to be implemented to reach the quiet phase of Ethereum 2.0. Since Ethereum 1.0 and 2.0 are two independent blockchains, and the transition process will be carried out gradually, miners can still carry out PoW mining in a few years.

Currently participating in the Ethereum 2.0 test network, there are more than 800 verification nodes, showing the high enthusiasm of the top cryptocurrency developer community. Its new monetary policy and high-scalability network make people look forward to it.

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Production cuts continue

Although Bitcoin has been halved in the first half of the year, there are still many things to watch in the second half of the first year of production reduction. Among the currencies currently supported by F2Pool, 8 currencies are about to cut production, and the number exceeds the first half of the year.

Beginning in July, the coins will be halved every month, and the three coins XZC, ZEC, and ZEN will be halved in September, November, and December successively, and the "anonymous coin production reduction season" will be staged.

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New Changes in the Computing Power Pattern

In the fourth quarter, the domestic wet season ended, and miners ushered in seasonal migration again. The ultra-low electricity price during the high water season is gone, and the computing power of high-power consumption models has withdrawn from the entire network. At the same time, new main models will be released in the second half of the year, and the proportion of large computing power equipment launched by various mining machine manufacturers will increase, and the computing power will complete the "new and old replacement".

From the perspective of global computing power, new large-scale mining farms in North America are expected to be built, and overseas computing power is showing a growing trend.

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BTC Bull Market Expectations

In the second half of the year, phenomenon-level projects such as Filecoin and Ethereum 2.0 will be gradually launched, and the production reduction season of mining coins will continue. New mining opportunities, changes in market supply and demand, and the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation are expected to inject new liquidity into the entire industry.

After going through the market test and the industry's zero-sum game, the miners who survived will be able to establish their own advantages in the "post-halving era".

In the second half of the year, are we expected to usher in the strength of major currencies such as BTC and the arrival of a big bull market?

No matter what the vision is, we still have to respect the market and make choices carefully while maintaining our faith.