

Taking stock of the hot spots of the year, you will find the three most important keywords that affect the trend of the mining industry: halving, wet season, and iteration of mining machines. Bitcoin halving coincides with industrial upgrading, putting the mining industry in 2020 at a key historical node. For miners, the discussion of keywords, such as halving, flood season, and mining machine iteration, focuses on understanding two things: Bitcoin value judgment and mining cost control.
secondary title
Keyword 1: wet season
What is the biggest feature of this year's wet season?
God fish:
God fish:This year's flood season can be sure that the supply of electricity will exceed demand, and the cost of electricity will drop significantly. Compared with last year's full-service electricity fee of 0.24-0.26 yuan, this year's electricity price will be in the early 0.2 yuan position. In extreme cases, there may be 0.1x Electricity bills appear. Since the flood season came earlier than last year, and 30% of the old models in the entire network will be eliminated, power resources will be redundant. This situation will also make it more difficult for many mines to attract investment, and this year's mine business will also change from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market".
Because of this, miners and mine farms may create a new "joint mining" business model under the game. The risk of possible shutdown during the wet season may be shared by miners and hosts this year, or a tiered electricity price and sharing model will appear , in order to make full use of mines, mining machines, and power resources.
How to avoid pits during mining in flood season?
God fish:
God fish:Mining during the high water season this year is good news for miners that costs are reduced and risks are shared with mines, but miners also need to carefully screen and pay attention to "avoid pits".
When choosing a mine, it is necessary to carefully examine the scale and operation and maintenance capabilities. Power stability has a certain impact on the stability, life, and theoretical income of the mining machine. It is necessary to find a mine with a large number of dams, water storage capacity, and buffer capacity; climate, Factors such as the rainy season will cause corrosion of the mining machine. It is necessary to carefully examine the physical environment and construction, operation and maintenance of the mine.
In terms of cost control, it is recommended to choose some financial instruments appropriately. According to the calculation of the shutdown currency price, use the hedging service launched by Cobo to set out the electricity bill for 3-6 months or even longer, avoid most of the risk exposure caused by electricity bills, and ensure the advantage of the wet season.
secondary title
Keyword 2: Halving
Will the halving bring "computing crit" to BTC?
Wang Chun:
Wang Chun:God fish:
God fish:After the halving, there is a very short time for arbitrage, which depends on whether this part of "excess returns" can be quickly captured. The mining pool will provide the function of proxy mining, arbitrage within a few hours. F2Pool has conducted internal testing of "smart mining hopping" for quite a long time. In fact, "smart pool" is not a new concept. The key is how to find the best hopping strategy during the mining hopping process to increase miners' income.
What did the mining giants experience in the previous two halvings?
God fish:
God fish:Wang Chun:
Wang Chun:God fish:
God fish:The second halving occurred during the bear market in 2016. Due to the high income of Avalon mining machines in 2013, we once established a mine in the center of a certain city, and later moved to an industrial park by the sea in a third-tier city due to increased costs. When the halving period approaches in 2015 and 2016, it is necessary to continue to optimize the electricity fee of about 0.3 yuan. The prominent feature of this period of time is that the mining industry has shifted from industrial parks to regions with lower electricity rates in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia and other places. This upgrade has promoted the rise of China's digital mining industry.
The upcoming third halving, and how it's different
God fish:
God fish:Wang Chun:
Wang Chun:At present, more than 87% of bitcoins have been dug out, and the stock is getting smaller and smaller. It is doubtful to what extent this halving market can stimulate currency prices. Another aspect of my concern is the impact on the security of the Bitcoin network.
secondary title
Keyword 3: mining machine iteration
Has the large-scale update of the mining machine started?
2-3 weeks before the wet season, the hardware will be updated on a large scale
Yao Xianjun:We have learned that there are very few 16nm machines at present. Personally, I judge that a small number of such stock devices will probably go offline during the halving and the arrival of the flood season.
The miners and mining farms who have offline old mining machines are currently looking for equipment with certain anti-risk capabilities. A large-scale hardware update plan is in progress, and the peak is expected to appear about 2-3 weeks before the wet season. At present, large-scale mines mostly adopt the method of ordering, and the pick-up period is from mid-April to early May to ensure the start-up under the halving market. At the same time, the equipment in the wet season has begun to transfer.
Among the existing BTC mining machines on the market, how many are 30-40 watts and 40-50 watts?
Energy efficiency ratio is only one of the factors of concentrator
Yao Xianjun:At present, there are no accurate statistics on the market. However, judging from the status quo of mining machine iterations, there are not many 30-40J/T machines, and the proportion of the entire network is very small. Energy efficiency ratio is one of the important parameters of a mining machine, but when buying a mining machine, factors such as electricity costs, spot or not, and unit price per T must also be considered. At present, the cost performance of 1066 Pro is very high.
What should be paid attention to when choosing a mining machine?
The mainstream model is a safe choice, and the transition stability cannot be ignored
Yao Xianjun:When choosing a new device, you must choose a mainstream model to ensure that it will be of good value in the next 1-2 years. At present, the first echelon products with relatively stable operation of mainstream mining machines have a computing power of more than 50T and a power consumption of about 60W. A relatively safe solution is to select among the mainstream new-generation mining machines, equipment that is stable in operation, has spot supply, and is expected to be able to meet mining needs within 1-2 years.
secondary title
Keyword 4: Quotes
Will the bull market still come?
The epidemic is over, the economy is recovering, and the bull market has begun
owl:We have been in a bear market for a long time. Of course there will be a bull market in the future, and a bull-bear cycle will appear. This bear market is mainly affected by the epidemic. We need to wait for the epidemic to pass, the global economy begins to recover, and the BTC bull market will also begin.
Mining is a game among miners. Under the current market conditions, for miners, if they can establish their own advantages, they can still continue to make profits. At the same time, if a new mining currency emerges, a new economy is created, and the use value is reflected, then the total profit of mining will be greater, so everyone should pay more attention to the development and application of new technologies.
How do you view the investment methods of mining, fixed investment, short-term, and contracts?
Optimistic about the long-term development of BTC, increase leverage and gamble to kill yourself
owl:Regarding mining, since the output is certain, mining is a game among miners. As mentioned earlier, miners with advantages can obtain good profits, such as advantages in electricity costs and mining machine costs.
Regarding fixed investment, it mainly depends on timing. If the investment period is 10 to 20 years, then it is possible, because BTC is still developing in the long term and has become a type of financial asset. If you expect to make a profit in one or two years, it may not be feasible, because it may be in a bear market for one or two years.
Regarding the short-term, in the short-term, only arbitrage trading can achieve meager profits in a relatively stable manner. For those who do swing trading, it is difficult to make long-term profits due to the high uncertainty in the short-term.
Regarding the contract, it is okay for miners to use the contract for hedging, but to increase leverage and gamble is to seek a dead end.
What are the experiences of "avoiding pits"?
The key is to change the way of thinking in time
owl:We have always believed that BTC is digital gold, which can resist the risks brought by the new crown virus epidemic as effectively as gold, and is a safe-haven asset. However, the recent trend of BTC is highly positively correlated with U.S. stocks, showing the characteristics of risky assets. Now that we have more understanding and are now in a bear market, miners need to make early plans, calculate the output of the future wet season before the halving, do a good job of hedging, and improve the ability to resist risks. The priority of the mining industry is survival. After survival, we still have many opportunities.


