The Fed's December Rate Path Faces a Test as Nonfarm Payrolls Become a Key Variable

Odaily Report: The Federal Reserve last week kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.75%-4.00%, while acknowledging that inflation remains elevated. The market currently widely expects that the Fed may further raise rates in December.

Investment analyst Michael Kramer believes that if the October employment report is broadly in line with expectations and the unemployment rate does not rise significantly, the market's assessment of the Fed's policy path may not change materially. However, if job growth significantly exceeds forecasts, the unemployment rate declines, and wage growth remains strong at the same time, investors may begin to reassess how many more rate hikes the Fed needs and whether the current market judgment on the end point of the rate hike cycle is sufficient.

MarketWatch statistics show that since January 2025, nonfarm payroll data have exceeded market expectations 11 times and fallen below expectations 10 times, with the average deviation between actual data and forecasts reaching tens of thousands of jobs.

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Asian chip stock selloff spreads, 22 billionaires lose over $18 billion in combined wealth
Odaily: As the global tech stock selloff spreads to Asia, the wealth of SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son and several other Asian business tycoons has shrunk significantly. According to calculations, as of 10 a.m. Beijing time, the combined wealth of 22 billionaires from China, Japan, South Korea and other countries who rank among the world's 500 richest people had fallen by more than $21 billion, later narrowing to over $18 billion.Masayoshi Son suffered the largest loss, with his personal wealth dropping by $3.9 billion to approximately $29 billion. Companies at the core of the AI boom were hit the hardest. Billionaires whose personal wealth shrank by at least $1 billion include Takemitsu Takizaki, founder of electronic sensor manufacturer Keyence, and Chang Chien-sheng, Singapore's richest person and chairman of semiconductor packaging and testing company ASE Technology Holding. The family of Lee Jae-yong, a Samsung Electronics shareholder, including his mother and sister, saw their combined wealth shrink by approximately $2.5 billion. The family is one of the wealthiest in Asia.
A whale sold 674.32 million PUMP for $2.59 million USDC, incurring a loss of $409,000
Odaily reports that according to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale sold 674.32 million PUMP 7 hours ago for $2.59 million USDC, incurring a loss of $409,000.
Analysis: Memory Suppliers' Q4 Revenue Poised to Hit New Records, Next-Gen HBM Prices to Keep Rising
Odaily reports that the latest report from market research firm Counterpoint shows major memory suppliers are expected to set new revenue records in Q4, driven by the launch of next-generation HBM products and continued price increases. In Q3 2026, Samsung ranked first in the DRAM market with a 38% share; SK Hynix posted stronger quarter-over-quarter growth, with revenue up more than 40% QoQ, regaining some market share; Micron grew strongly on the back of AI data center memory demand, but at a slower pace than Samsung and SK Hynix; CXMT's market share rose from 5% in the same period last year to 9%.
Serenity: Anthropic's annualized revenue has surpassed $80 billion in October; delaying IPO could help ease market liquidity pressure
Odaily: "White-haired stock guru" Serenity cited the latest WSJ data in a post on X, stating: "Anthropic's growth rate is indeed somewhat astonishing. As of October this year, its latest annualized revenue (run rate) has already exceeded $80 billion. This figure clearly exceeds previous market expectations. The market had generally expected its annualized revenue run rate to be around $70 billion, with a fluctuation of a few billion dollars. However, Anthropic should probably still delay its IPO. Given that the market is currently undergoing a wave of liquidations, doing so might also help ease the liquidity pressure on other AI companies."
Japanese and South Korean stock markets close with collective plunge of 6%
According to Odaily: Gate data shows that the Nikkei 225 index closed down 5.96% at 57,434.77 points; South Korea's KOSPI index closed down 6.02% at 5,059.65 points, hitting a new low since April. SK Hynix fell more than 10%.
A whale that had been dormant for over a year withdrew 1,286 BTC from Binance, worth approximately $98.03 million
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale that had been dormant for over a year withdrew 1,286 BTC from Binance today, worth approximately $98.03 million, at an average withdrawal price of about $76,230. This whale had previously deposited 5,699 BTC into Binance, worth approximately $509 million, at an average deposit price of $89,291. The price at which the BTC was withdrawn this time is significantly lower than the previous deposit price, which may suggest that the whale is repositioning at lower levels.
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