Lighter Prediction Market Mechanism Reportedly Exposed: Plans to Adopt HIP-3-Style Whitelisted Operator Model

Odaily News: A commit titled "Binary options support" has recently appeared in the codebase of decentralized orderbook exchange platform Lighter, indicating that its ZK Circuits may have begun supporting binary outcome markets (prediction markets). According to the code, each market has a settlement cap (typically 100 for prediction markets), with share prices trading between 0 and that cap, and the market ultimately settling at either 0 or the cap based on the outcome. The mechanism uses full USDC collateralization and does not support leveraged trading, so there is no risk of forced liquidation or liquidation.

Additionally, there are two notable design elements in Lighter's implementation:

First, the Circuits support continuous market settlement, meaning market outcomes can settle at any value between 0 and the cap. This means that in addition to traditional "yes/no" events, it can also support contracts based on actual measured data. For example, a liquidation-free prediction market based on IPO valuation ranges could potentially be launched in the future: users bet on a company's IPO pricing outcome, and the final payout is calculated linearly based on where the actual valuation falls within the range, with minimum and maximum payouts set at the boundaries.

Second, the market creation and settlement mechanism. According to analysis, Lighter may introduce a "market operator" model, allowing whitelisted operators to create, manage, and be responsible for market settlement, similar to the HIP-3 deployment model. This design suggests that Lighter's prediction markets may not be entirely created uniformly by the platform, but rather expanded through authorized operators to broaden market categories.