Meta裁员8000人重组AI团队,Polymarket上“2026年科技业裁员人数超去年”概率升至84%

Odaily Seer 先知频道监测显示, 受硅谷巨头新一轮 AI 重组裁员潮影响,Polymarket 上“2026 年科技行业(信息部门)裁员人数是否会超过 2025 年”预测事件的建仓概率已升至 84%。

相关背景方面,科技巨头因 AI 全面自动化和架构重组引发的裁员风暴再度升级。据彭博社和《联合早报》今日最新报道,Facebook 母公司 Meta Platforms 已正式启动涉及全球约 10% 员工(约 8,000 人)的大规模裁员,主要集中在工程与产品团队。由于时差原因,位于亚洲枢纽的新加坡员工首当其冲,在今日凌晨 4 点便收到了解雇邮件通知,全球其余地区员工已被要求居家办公等待通知。

此前,Meta 已将约 7,000 名员工调配至全新的人工智能项目团队,并取消了 6,000 个原定招聘的空缺职位。这种“裁撤传统岗位、向 AI 全面倾斜”的举措,与近期思科(Cisco)宣布裁员 4,000 人、以及微软、亚马逊等巨头的裁员动作步调高度一致。

根据该事件在 Polymarket 上的官方结算规则:

该市场结算完全以美联储经济数据库(FRED)公布的月度数据为准,具体参考不经季节性调整的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查中的“信息部门裁员与解雇人数”(指标代码:JTU5100LDL)。

2025 年该部门录得的全年裁员总数为 44.7 万人。若 2026 年 FRED 最终公布的总数大于 2025 年,该市场将结算为“Up”;若少于去年则结算为“Down”;若完全持平则按 50-50 结算。

若在美东时间 2027 年 6 月 30 日前相关数据仍未全部公布,则以届时已发布的数据计算总数,且所有后期的数据修正将不予考虑。数据的精度将严格保留至整数(以千人为单位)。

目前,仅 2026 年前五个月全球科技业裁员人数就已大幅超前,市场普遍预期由 AI 技术催生的行业结构性失业在年内恐将继续加剧。

Odaily Seer 先知频道持续关注预测市场,在定价之前,看见变化。

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