Delphi Digital Analyzes Marginal Changes in Strategy’s Bitcoin Financing Model, STRC Becomes Key Expansion Engine but Risks Rise Concurrently

Odaily Odaily reports that crypto research institution Delphi Digital has released its latest report, "How Far Can Saylor Stretch It," providing a systematic analysis of Strategy's Bitcoin (BTC) capital expansion mechanism. It indicates that the company's financing structure is transitioning from a phase of "low-cost accumulation" into one of "diminishing marginal efficiency."

The report shows that within the current asset accumulation system centered on Bitcoin, STRC has become the core financing tool for Strategy's continued BTC purchases. Initially, the company relied on a significant premium in MSTR's stock price (with mNAV far exceeding BTC's net asset value) to create a positive cycle where "issuing shares meant increasing holdings." However, as valuations have receded to approximately 1.24 times the base mNAV of enterprise value, the BTC-per-share accretion effect from common stock issuance is approaching a break-even point.

Meanwhile, while convertible bonds have played a crucial role historically, they have accumulated a principal of approximately $8.2 billion and face concentrated repayment pressure after September 2027, putting long-term strain on the sustainability of the financing structure.

STRC provides Strategy with a continuous source of financing—used to maintain its BTC buying pace—by offering yield-seeking investors an approximately 11.5% annualized monthly dividend. However, this mechanism also introduces ongoing cash flow obligations, meaning that each round of financing simultaneously builds future dividend burdens while increasing BTC assets.

The report emphasizes a key risk scenario: if BTC's price remains stagnant and MSTR's premium fails to recover, the "gains from STRC-financed coin purchases" could be progressively offset by "common stock dilution and dividend obligations." Although the company's approximately $2.25 billion cash reserve can cover its roughly $1 billion redemption pressure in 2027, its larger debt and dividend structure in 2028 remains unresolved.

Furthermore, STRC's current authorized issuance limit of approximately $28.3 billion serves as a critical constraint. Once this limit is reached, the capacity for new BTC purchases may slow, yet existing dividend obligations will persist—thereby altering the overall dynamic growth trajectory of BTC per share.